December 5, 2025 Bank of Canada announces finalists for the eleventh annual Governor’s Challenge Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada has announced the five finalist teams in the 2025-26 edition of The Governor’s Challenge, a competition where university students simulate the role of advisor to the Bank’s Governing Council. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
Unintended consequences of liquidity regulation Staff Analytical Note 2025-28 Omar Abdelrahman, Josef Schroth When a bank holds a lot of safe assets, it is well situated to deal with funding stress. But when all banks hold a lot of safe assets, a pecuniary externality implies that their (wholesale) funding costs increase. This reduces banks’ ability to hold capital buffers and thus, paradoxically, increases the frequency of funding stress. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E6, G, G2, G21, G28
Modelling the Sovereign Debt Strategy: A Practical Primer Staff Discussion Paper 2025-16 Nicolas Audet, Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao, Joe Ning We provide a primer on the role of debt modelling in informing the sovereign debt issuance strategy and discuss how specific challenges faced by debt managers can influence model design decisions. These insights are supported by our experiences using the Canadian Debt Strategy Model to guide policy decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11, G17, H, H6, H63, H68
Anticipating changes in bank capital buffer requirements Staff Analytical Note 2025-27 Josef Schroth Time-varying capital buffer requirements are a powerful tool that allow bank regulators to avoid severe financial stress without the cost of imposing very high levels of capital. However, this tool is only effective if banks understand how it is used. I present a model that banks and financial market participants can use to anticipate how time-varying capital buffer requirements change over time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44
Do Firms’ Sales Expectations Hit the Mark? Evidence from the Business Leaders’ Pulse Staff Discussion Paper 2025-15 Owen Gaboury, Farrukh Suvankulov, Mathieu Utting We analyze Canadian data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Leaders’ Pulse, examining firms’ sales growth expectations. We find that expected growth predicts outcomes, uncertainty influences forecast errors and revisions, and firms with weak past performance anticipate and experience weaker future growth. These results highlight the survey’s value for understanding business expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22
AI Agents for Cash Management in Payment Systems Staff Working Paper 2025-35 Iñaki Aldasoro, Ajit Desai Can artificial intelligence (AI) think and act like a cash manager? In this paper we explore how generative AI agents can help manage liquidity, prioritize payments and optimize efficiency in real-time gross settlement systems. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): A, A1, A12, C, C7, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42, E5, E58