A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria Staff Working Paper 1996-5 Joseph Atta-Mensah, Walter Engert, Scott Hendry, Jamie Armour A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on the effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, E52
Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest Rates Using Structural VAR Methodology Staff Working Paper 1996-2 Pierre St-Amant In this paper, the author uses structural vector autoregression methodology to decompose U.S. nominal interest rates into an expected inflation component and an ex ante real interest rate component. He identifies inflation expectations and ex ante real interest rate shocks by assuming that nominal interest rates and inflation expectations move one-for-one in the long-run—they are cointegrated (1,1)—and that the real interest rate is stationary. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E43
Measurement Biases in the Canadian CPI Technical Report No. 64 Allan Crawford The consumer price index (CPI) may be an imperfect measure of changes in the cost of living owing to measurement biases known as commodity substitution bias, new goods bias, quality bias and outlet substitution bias. When the sum of these individual biases is positive, the rate of change in the CPI overstates the increase in […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
Wage and Price Dynamics in Canada Technical Report No. 56 Barry Cozier This paper examines wage and price dynamics in Canada with a view towards testing the implications of a wage-price dynamics, according to which unit labour costs are determined by a wage Phillips curve while prices are set as a markup over unit labour costs. This model is compared to an alternative model in which excess […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C52, E, E2, E24, E3, E31
Some Evidence on Hysteresis and the Costs of Disinflation in Canada Technical Report No. 55 Barry Cozier, Gordon Wilkinson This paper addresses the following questions: How large are the output costs of disinflation in Canada? Are these costs temporary, as predicted by natural-rate models, or are they permanent, as predicted by hysteresis models? Are the costs of disinflation higher at lower rates of inflation? Are they higher when the economy is at or below […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31
The Goal of Price Stability: A Review of the Issues Technical Report No. 54 Jack Selody The basic responsibility of a central bank is to preserve the value of money—that is, to maintain stability in the general level of prices. This report pulls together the main arguments for and against price stability as the appropriate goal for monetary policy. The available evidence suggests that the benefits of price stability are many […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E50
The Inflation-adjusted Rate of Return on Corporate Debt and Equity: 1966-1980 Technical Report No. 39 Stuart Gilson This report has two main objectives: First, to determine whether the real tax rate on investment income has proven sensitive to inflation; second, to determine the extent to which real returns to debt and equity, based on published data, differ from those based on inflation-adjusted data. The scope of the inflationary distortion in corporate income […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, G, G1, G12, G3, G30
Asset Stocks and the Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policies to Reduce Inflation Technical Report No. 35 Paul Masson This paper analyzes the dynamic behaviour of a country's economy under different policy regimes, by examining the cyclical effects that occur when certain intermediate macroeconomic targets are adopted. To highlight the differences in the adjustment paths that result, the study deliberately limits policy choice: either money supply or nominal income as targets, and either real […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E6, E63