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This paper introduces CLONE, a method that decomposes asset price movements into aggregate demand, productivity, inflation, and monetary policy news, using stocks, bonds, and inflation swaps. CLONE simplicity and forward-looking focus helps guide policymakers in determining the economic drivers behind asset price movements.

The Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, or ToTEM, replaced the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) in December 2005 as the Bank's principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy. Benefiting from advances in economic modelling and computer power, ToTEM builds on the strengths of QPM, allowing for optimizing behaviour on the part of firms and households, both in and out of steady state, in a multi-product environment. The authors explain the motivation behind the development of ToTEM, provide an overview of the model and its calibration, and present several simulations to illustrate its key properties, concluding with some indications of how the model is expected to evolve going forward.

When Paul and I appeared before this Committee last April, we said that the economy appeared to be operating slightly below its production capacity, and that we expected it to move back to full capacity in the second half of 2006. In our October Monetary Policy Report, which we published last Thursday, we said that economic growth in the first half of the year was somewhat stronger than we had previously expected. Indeed, the global and Canadian economies have continued to grow at a solid pace, and our economy now appears to be operating at full production capacity.

Potential output is expected to grow on average at 1.8 per cent over 2019–21 and at 1.9 per cent in 2022. While the contribution of trend labour input to potential output growth is expected to decrease between 2019 and 2022, the contribution of trend labour productivity is projected to increase.

The ongoing trade conflict is fundamentally reshaping Canada’s economy and will have a lasting negative impact on economic activity. At the same time, the reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is putting upward pressure on costs. Reflecting these two competing forces, inflation remains near the 2% target over the projection horizon.

Past and recent movements in energy prices and in the exchange rate for the Canadian dollar, along with competitive pressures from China and other newly industrialized economies, are giving rise to significant ongoing adjustments in the Canadian economy. Given these adjustments and the slow growth of productivity in recent years, the Bank has slightly reduced its estimate of potential output growth for 2005 and 2006.

This paper develops a model of firm heterogeneity, technological adoption, and urbanization. In the model, welfare is measured by household real income, and urbanization is measured by population density. I use the model to derive statistics that measure the effect of a new technology on productivity, welfare, and urbanization.

This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

Global debt is now US$100 trillion higher than just before the financial crisis and more than three times global gross domestic product (GDP), presenting a headwind to growth and making the financial system vulnerable, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins said today.

The Bank of Canada has been examining the issue of how the Canadian economy adjusts movements in the exchange rate for a long time. Canada's economy is very open, so we always need to understand how exchange rate movements are affecting real economic activity and, in turn, what the implications are for monetary policy.