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Three developments have led us to modify our outlook for economic growth and inflation in Canada, since our October Monetary Policy Report. These include: stronger-than-expected world economic activity, the continued sharp depreciation of the U.S. dollar against major world currencies (including the Canadian dollar), and a somewhat larger output gap in Canada at the end of 2003.

This morning, we released our Update to last November's Monetary Policy Report. This Update was completed at the time of the Bank Rate announcement on 23 January. It presents the analysis on which we based our decision to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points.

Growth in the global economy began to slow in the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008. This reflected the effects of the slowdown in the U.S. economy and ongoing dislocations in global financial markets.

Growth in the Canadian economy has been essentially in line with the expectations set out in the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report Update.

The global economy has suffered an intense, synchronous recession and considerable excess supply has opened up.

Six months ago, at the time of the last Monetary Policy Report, the global economic and financial environment was volatile and highly uncertain because of the adverse situation in Asia and the fallout from the Russian debt moratorium.

Since the last Report, the Canadian economy has advanced broadly in line with expectations.

At the time of the November 2000 Monetary Policy Report, although signs of the anticipated slowing of the U.S. economy were becoming apparent, the momentum of the global economy was considered strong.

Interest rates are working to moderate spending and inflation is easing gradually, though underlying pressures are proving persistent. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% through the first half of 2024, returning to target in 2025.

The global economic recovery is entering a new phase. In advanced economies, temporary factors supporting growth in 2010, such as the inventory cycle and pent-up demand, have largely run their course and fiscal stimulus will shift to fiscal consolidation over the projection horizon.