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This article compares different measures of real short-term interest rates for Canada over the period from 1956 to 1995. A new measure for the expected real interest rate is constructed using a proxy for inflation expectations that is based on the properties of past inflation. The history of inflation in Canada suggests that the characteristics of inflation have changed considerably over time. Past inflation can be characterized by three different types of behaviour: an environment in which average inflation is low and shocks to inflation have only temporary effects; an environment of moderate inflation with more persistent disturbances; and an environment of drifting inflation in which shocks have permanent effects on the level of inflation. The proxy for inflation expectations uses a statistical model, called a Markov Switching Model, to take account of changes in the behaviour of inflation over time. It is found that uncertainty about the changing characteristics of inflation behaviour leads to uncertainty about estimates of inflation expectations and thus about measures of real interest rates. Target ranges for keeping inflation low should help reduce the uncertainty about inflation behaviour. The behaviour of inflation and interest rates suggests that the credibility of the Bank of Canada's inflation-control objectives is growing. This should reduce inflation uncertainty and lead to lower nominal interest rates over time.

To be a leading central bank, we must work beyond our own walls—taking a big-picture view as we move our priorities forward. That means ensuring our messages reach the people we are working for so that they better understand what we do and how it affects their own plans and choices. As we nurture relationships with the Bank’s domestic and international partners, we will focus on areas where we can lead, leveraging our strengths to collaborate and promote greater economic and financial stability for Canadians.

The Annual Report outlines the Bank’s activities and achievements in 2018. It includes the financial statements and a message from Governor Stephen S. Poloz.

he Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2 1/2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 2 3/4 per cent.

The Board of Directors of the Bank of Canada today announced the appointment of Marc-André Gosselin and Nicolas Vincent as Deputy Governors, effective May 25 and August 3, 2026, respectively.

It has not been an easy year. All of you have been running companies and making decisions under very uncertain conditions. You have had to deal with corporate and accounting issues. Markets have been volatile. And geopolitical events have shaken confidence.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the preconditions for a return to natural economic growth for Canada.

Mr. Chairman, my colleagues and I are pleased to appear before your committee on a regular basis following the release of the Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report. It gives us a chance to discuss with you a range of economic and monetary issues. More generally, our semi-annual Report and sessions such as this one […]

The Bank of Canada announced today the departure of Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes on April 10, and the retirement of Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki on July 15.