Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation Staff working paper 2018-10 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Mohanad Salameh, Pierre St-Amant We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
March 1, 2006 A Primer on Canada’s Large Value Transfer System Darcey McVanel, Neville Arjani This paper provides a comprehensive overview of Canada’s Large Value Transfer System (LVTS). Content Type(s): Background materials
September 11, 2009 Understanding Corporate Bond Spreads Using Credit Default Swaps Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2009 Alejandro García, Jun Yang Corporate bond spreads worldwide have widened markedly since the beginning of the credit crisis in 2007. This article examines default and liquidity risk–the main components of the corporate bond spread–for Canadian firms that issue bonds in the U.S. market, focusing in particular on their evolution during the credit crisis. They find that, during this period, the liquidity component increased more for speculative-grade bonds than it did for investment-grade bonds, consistent with a "flight-to-quality" phenomenon. An important implication of their results for policy-makers seeking to address problems in credit markets is that the liquidity risk in corporate spreads for investment and speculative bonds behaves differently than the default risk, especially during crisis episodes. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
October 19, 2006 Release of the Monetary Policy Report Opening statement David Dodge The Canadian economy is judged to be operating just above its production capacity. While global economic growth is expected to be a little higher than previously anticipated, a weaker near-term outlook for the U.S. economy has curbed the near-term prospects for Canadian exports and growth. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
November 1, 2023 Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Commerce and the Economy Opening statement Tiff Macklem Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Commerce and the Economy Ottawa, Ontario Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
April 10, 2024 Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
October 23, 2024 Monetary Policy Report—October 2024—Risks The Bank of Canada sees both upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook, but the base-case scenario is considered the most likely outcome.
March 12, 2002 Monetary Policy Choices: The Canadian Experience Remarks David Dodge Chambre de Commerce France-Canada and Les Canadiens en Europe (France) Paris, France Over the years, both Canada and France have had to make decisions about the framework guiding monetary policy. The authorities in the two countries have made choices that reflect the differences in our economies. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
What cured the TSX Equity index after COVID-19? Staff analytical note 2021-3 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ryan Shotlander The TSX index rose by 9.5 percent in November 2020, adding large gains to an already sharp V-shaped recovery. The economic outlook improved at that time as well. We ask whether the stock market gains since last autumn are due to improving forecasts of firms’ earnings. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
July 30, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—July 2025—Canadian economy—Scenario assumptions With some new tariff agreements in place, the range of trade policy outcomes has narrowed. Nevertheless, the situation remains fluid and difficult to predict. Canada’s economic outlook therefore continues to be highly dependant on assumptions about how US trade policy could unfold.