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Results in the first quarter of 2023 show that consumer expectations for inflation one to two years ahead fell but remain elevated, particularly for services. Consumers, especially indebted households and equity-deserving groups, are facing financial pressures and limits on their spending due to high inflation and increasing interest rates. Consumers expect to spend less on discretionary services, such as travelling and eating out. Canadians continue to anticipate a recession in the next 12 months. Many are uncertain about where the economy and job markets are going. Despite this, workers still see the labour market as strong and expect wage growth to increase.

This issue focuses on the upcoming renewal of Canada’s inflation-control target. Bank researchers discuss the estimate of the lower bound to policy interest rates in Canada. They also discuss downward nominal wage rigidity and whether its presence warrants considering a higher inflation target. The third article highlights the experience some international central banks have had with unconventional monetary policies. The final article describes monetary policy frameworks in 10 advanced economies.

We introduce bounded rationality in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada’s adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to quantitatively assess the macroeconomic impact of alternative monetary policy regimes.

Discussion of recent research into three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil; inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy: a review of recent evidence and experience; examination of the influence of various forms of economic uncertainty on the performance of different classes of monetary policy rules; how, when, and why such revisions to many important economic variables occur.

Three major interrelated global developments are having a profound impact on the Canadian economy and making the outlook more uncertain than it was at the time of the July Monetary Policy Report Update.

Economic growth in Canada is projected to rise to around 1.8% in 2025 and 2026, outpacing potential output, and excess supply is gradually absorbed. Inflation is expected to remain close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.

The trade conflict has made the outlook for the Canadian economy highly uncertain. There is a range of scenarios for how US trade policy could unfold, which leads to a wide range of outcomes for Canadian inflation and economic growth.

The level of production in the Canadian economy should return to full capacity in the second half of 2003. We also said that inflation should be at the Bank's 2 per cent target by about the end of next year.

Lectures delivered by Gordon G. Thiessen, Governor of the Bank of Canada 1994 to 2001