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Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period.

The objective of Canada's monetary policy is to support and advance national economic well-being by contributing to sustained economic growth, rising levels of employment and improved living standards. The best contribution monetary policy can make to securing this outcome is to preserve confidence in the value of money by providing individuals and businesses with the certainty of a stable, low-inflation environment for their economic decisions.

The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment.

The day-long workshop, held at the Bank, brought out wide-ranging views on the goals of monetary policy, the effectiveness of monetary policy tools, the role of transparency and communications, and lessons learned from other central banks.

Central bankers from inflation-targeting and non-inflation-targeting countries around the world and several distinguished scholars assembled at the Bank of Canada in July 2008 to review the international experience in some detail. This article highlights topics covered in the special lectures and sessions, including how inflation targeting can manage external shocks, various ways in which monetary policy decisions are taken, and the issues of transparency and communications. It also reports on the discussion in the closing panel, which considered options for the future of inflation targeting.

Decomposing total inflation in Canada as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) into its key macroeconomic factors, as presented in the most recent Monetary Policy Report, is an interesting exercise that shows how the exchange rate pass-through, commodity prices and the output gap have influenced the evolution of the total inflation rate over time. This aggregate approach, however, may mask important sectoral changes.

MONTRÉAL, QUEBEC—The fundamental forces that have always driven inflation will continue to do so, even as the global economy evolves, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen S. Poloz said today. In a speech to CFA Montréal and the Montreal Council on Foreign Relations, Governor Poloz challenged the idea that recent softness in inflation in many advanced […]

Did supply disruptions and cost pressures play a role in rising inflation in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic? Using data collected from websites of large retailers in multiple sectors and countries, we show that shortages may indicate transitory inflationary pressures.

Using the microdata underlying the Canadian consumer price index, we study how often and by how much firms changed their prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the surge in inflation was mainly associated with retailers raising prices much more often than before. We also find that more recently, corporate price-setting behaviour appears to be approaching pre-pandemic norms.

Canadians can be confident that monetary policy will maintain a "relentless" focus on controlling inflation, whether it rises above or drops below the official target range, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said today.