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January 14, 2008

Business Outlook Survey - Winter 2007-08

Overall, firms remain positive about the outlook, with the results of the winter survey showing little change from those of the autumn survey. Nonetheless, firms reported more uncertainty in light of recent developments, most notably the volatility in the value of the Canadian dollar.

Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility

Staff working paper 2016-37 Michael Ehrmann, Jonathan Talmi
Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes.

United in Booms, Divided in Busts: Regional House Price Cycles and Monetary Policy

Staff working paper 2025-36 Ulrich Roschitsch, Hannes Twieling
This paper shows that regional disparities in house price growth are more pronounced during house price busts than during booms. To explain this observation we construct a two-region currency union model incorporating a housing sector and extrapolative belief updating regarding house prices. To solve the model, we propose a new method that efficiently handles extrapolative belief updating in a wide class of structural models.
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