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November 20, 2013

Opening Statement before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce

Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario
Thank you for the opportunity for Tiff and me to be with you today to discuss the October Monetary Policy Report, which the Bank published recently. The Bank aims to communicate our objectives openly and effectively and to stand accountable for our actions before Canadians. One of the best ways to do this is through […]

It takes a panel to predict the future: What the stock market says about future economic growth in Canada

Staff analytical note 2023-9 Greg Adams, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine
Valuation ratios in the Canadian stock market can help reveal investors’ expectations about future economic growth because the impact of economic growth on valuation ratios can vary across industries. We find that this variation helps produce accurate forecasts of future growth of real gross domestic product in Canada. The forecasts from our model declined by just over 3 percentage points between January 2022 and February 2023—a period when the Bank of Canada rapidly increased the overnight rate. As well, we find that interest-rate-sensitive industries had an outsized contribution to this expected slowdown in growth. 
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