Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Bayesian Inference Staff working paper 2025-14 Helmut Lütkepohl, Fei Shang, Luis Uzeda, Tomasz Woźniak We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility. Our analysis focuses on whether a particular structural shock can be identified through heteroskedasticity without imposing any sign or exclusion restrictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C12, C3, C32, E, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
November 17, 1999 Monetary Policy Report – November 1999 Since the May Report, the international economic environment has continued to improve. Economic activity abroad grew faster than expected, while inflation in the major economies remained subdued. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
December 31, 2018 Research Update - December 2018 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
October 18, 2021 Business Outlook Survey―Third Quarter of 2021 Firms anticipate stronger demand as pandemic conditions improve, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey in the third quarter of 2021. However, many businesses face supply constraints that will limit their sales and put upward pressure on their costs. Together, these demand pressures and supply challenges are driving widespread plans to invest, hire staff and increase prices. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
May 16, 2013 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2013 This issue includes analysis of the unconventional monetary policies recently implemented by central banks, and also presents Bank research in two areas - the migration of labour between economic regions in Canada, and the asset-allocation and funding decisions for Canada’s foreign exchange reserves. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
June 30, 2025 Quarterly Research Update – 2025 Q2 This newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
March 8, 2018 Canada’s Economic Expansion: A Progress Report Remarks Timothy Lane Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the issues that led Governing Council to hold the policy interest rate at 1.25 per cent in their March 7 decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
May 16, 2018 The (Mostly) Long and Short of Potential Output Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Ottawa Economics Association and CFA Society Ottawa Ottawa, Ontario Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the importance of potential output to monetary policy, as well as policy challenges and opportunities in a world of low potential output growth. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
Monetary policy, interest rates and the Canadian dollar Staff analytical note 2025-2 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ingomar Krohn, James Kyeong, Rishi Vala, Konrad Zmitrowicz Changes in domestic interest rates affect the value of the Canadian dollar less than changes in the risk premium do. These variations often occur when a broad shift in risk sentiment occurs in global markets. Ultimately, the value of the currency reflects long-term, slow-moving features of the economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
April 4, 2022 Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2022 In the first-quarter 2022 Business Outlook Survey, reports of labour-related capacity constraints and supply chain challenges remain widespread. Given these pressures and robust demand, businesses anticipate stronger price growth—and they expect the Russian invasion of Ukraine to add more cost pressures. As public health restrictions ease, firms that were hit hard during the pandemic anticipate their sales will pick up. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey