July 30, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—July 2025—Canadian economy—Scenario assumptions With some new tariff agreements in place, the range of trade policy outcomes has narrowed. Nevertheless, the situation remains fluid and difficult to predict. Canada’s economic outlook therefore continues to be highly dependant on assumptions about how US trade policy could unfold.
July 30, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—July 2025—In focus—The path of US tariffs remains uncertain Because the trade environment remains so uncertain, the path for Canadian growth and inflation is less clear than usual. If the trade conflict were to escalate or de-escalate, those shifts would alter economic outcomes.
July 30, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—July 2025—Overview US tariffs are significantly higher than they were at the start of 2025, and US trade policy remains unpredictable. Inflation is near 2%, although underlying price pressures have picked up. With uncertainty about US trade policy still high, the outlook for the Canadian economy remains clouded.
July 30, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—July 2025—Canadian economy—Current conditions Canadian economic activity has slowed considerably because of the trade conflict but is showing signs of resilience. While inflation is close to 2%, underlying inflation has risen to about 2½%.
July 30, 2025 Bank of Canada interest rate announcement and release of the Monetary Policy Report On Wednesday, July 30, 2025, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the target for the overnight rate. A press release will provide a brief explanation of the decision. The Bank will also publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) at the same time as the rate decision. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
July 30, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—Canadian economy—Outlook Tariffs and trade uncertainty are expected to weigh on Canadian economic activity for some time. Inflation remains close to the 2% target over the scenario horizon.
July 30, 2025 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Tiff Macklem Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Monetary Policy Report and the key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the monetary policy decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
July 30, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—July 2025—Global economy Global growth has slowed since the start of 2025 amid the ongoing shifts in US trade policy and the resulting uncertainty. Still, the global economy has remained resilient so far, even though US tariffs are at their highest levels in decades.
July 30, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—July 2025—Risks Considerable uncertainty surrounds the outlook for inflation. It is extremely difficult to predict how US trade policy will play out and how businesses, households and governments will react to a given level of tariffs. The outlook also faces risks that are not directly related to tariffs.
July 22, 2025 CFEC Releases Results of April 2025 Foreign Exchange Volume Survey The Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee (CFEC) released today the results of its April 2025 semi-annual survey of foreign exchange volumes in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee