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Quarterly Financial Report - First Quarter 2024 - For the period ended March 31, 2024

This article presents the key results from the 2024 Bank of Canada Financial System Survey, conducted between February 20 and March 8. The survey included a special section on potential risks arising from different hypothetical interest-rate paths.

Canada’s financial system remains resilient. Over the past year, households, businesses, banks and non-bank financial institutions have continued to proactively adjust to higher interest rates. But this adjustment is not yet over and continues to present risks to financial stability. Key risks include those related to debt serviceability and asset valuations.

The Annual Report outlines the Bank’s activities and achievements in 2023. It includes the financial statements and a message from Governor Tiff Macklem.

This report lays out elements of the Bank’s strategy related to climate change and details how the issue will be managed holistically across the organization, following the recommendations of the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures.

This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on April 10, 2024.

The Market Participants Survey results are based on questionnaire responses from about 30 financial market participants.

Monetary policy is working to reduce inflationary pressures and inflation is coming down, although it will take more time to see if this progress proves durable. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% into the second quarter of 2024, ease below 2.5% in the second half of the year and return to target in 2025.

Business sentiment and sales growth expectations have stopped falling, according to firms responding to the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. But demand remains subdued, which is allowing price pressures and the labour market to ease. As a result, fewer firms than in the previous survey are planning unusually large or frequent price increases over the next 12 months.

Consumers believe inflation has slowed, but expectations for inflation in the near term have barely changed. Sticky inflation expectations may be due to elevated uncertainty about near-term inflation and still-high expectations for interest rates and rent costs over the next 12 months. Long-term inflation expectations have increased from low levels. Relative to last quarter, consumers now think domestic factors supporting high inflation, such as high government spending and elevated housing costs, will take longer to resolve. High inflation and high interest rates continue to impact household budgets and spending decisions, but consumers are less pessimistic about the economic outlook. After easing for several quarters, perceptions of the labour market have stabilized, and high inflation expectations continue to support stronger-than-average expectations for wage growth.