Owen Gaboury - Latest

• Do Firms’ Sales Expectations Hit the Mark? Evidence from the Business Leaders’ Pulse

  Staff discussion paper 2025-15 Owen Gaboury, Farrukh Suvankulov, Mathieu Utting

  We analyze Canadian data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Leaders’ Pulse, examining firms’ sales growth expectations. We find that expected growth predicts outcomes, uncertainty influences forecast errors and revisions, and firms with weak past performance anticipate and experience weaker future growth. These results highlight the survey’s value for understanding business expectations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting