Posts

• July 27, 2026

  Market Participants Survey—Second Quarter of 2026

  The Market Participants Survey results are based on questionnaire responses from about 26 financial market participants.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Market Participants Survey
• July 27, 2026

  Release: Market Participants Survey

  10:30 (ET)
  The Market Participants Survey is conducted quarterly. Bank of Canada staff reach out to a diverse set of participants in financial markets to gather their views on key macroeconomic and financial variables as well as on monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Upcoming events
• July 27, 2026

  Bank of Canada publishes its 2027 schedule for policy interest rate announcements and other major publications

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada today published its 2027 schedule for policy interest rate announcements and the release of the quarterly Monetary Policy Report.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases

• Balancing Act: Monetary Policy Responses to Natural Disasters

  Staff working paper 2026-28 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Alexander Ueberfeldt, Malik Shukayev

  Natural disasters can create important challenges for monetary policy in resource-rich small open economies. Using a DSGE model calibrated to Canada, we show that most disasters operate as adverse supply shocks, lowering output and raising inflation, thereby creating a trade-off for monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, D, D6, D63, E, E5, E52, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Climate change

• Monetary Policy in an AI-Driven Two-Speed Economy

  Staff working paper 2026-27 Joshua Brault, Maryam Haghighi, Jing Yang

  We analyze monetary policy responses to AI in a two-sector New Keynesian model, distinguishing augmentation and automation. Both reduce labor demand, requiring accommodation that creates inflation trade-offs. Automation worsens them. Aggregate inflation depends on AI’s form and breadth, making policy stabilization more complex and aggregate data potentially misleading.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, J, J2, J23, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity

• From Stress to Strategy: How Banks Balance the Scales

  Staff working paper 2026-26 Ruben Hipp, Javier Ojea Ferreiro

  This paper develops a stress-testing framework in which banks strategically adjust their balance sheets in response to regulatory constraints and market conditions. Applied to Canada’s largest banks, it quantifies the effects of macroprudential policies on lending and identifies systemic vulnerabilities through reverse stress testing.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, C7, C73, G, G2, G21, G3, G32, H, H1, H12 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models

• Time-Inconsistent Manager Incentives and Capital Formation

  Staff working paper 2026-25 José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, Josef Schroth, Tamon Takamura, Yaz Terajima

  In a dynamic model with limited commitment, aggregate payout-based compensation induces managers to raise outside equity yet invest too little today. Per-share compensation eliminates the dilution motive and restores efficient investment, but it does so through slower capital accumulation that better protects incumbent shareholder value.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32, G34, J, J3, J33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models

• Monetary Policy Challenges in a Volatile World

  Staff analytical paper 2026-34 Stefano Gnocchi, Matteo Cacciatore

  Rising volatility and structural shifts—deglobalization, climate risks, and AI—are reshaping inflation and policy trade-offs. Evidence suggests central banks can accommodate supply-driven inflation while balancing inflation and output, as long as expectations stay anchored and policy reflects shock size, persistence, and broader economic conditions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Climate change, International trade, finance and competitiveness

• Seeing the Economy through Colored Glasses: Partisanship in Macro and (not in) Micro Expectations

  Staff working paper 2026-24 Adrian Monninger, Kyung Woong Koh, Tao Wang

  Households report distinctive views of the macroeconomy along partisan lines, while their expectations about personal finances do not follow the same pattern. Economic inequality remains the major contributor to polarized views of the macroeconomy. Partisan politics are simply a magnifier.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E30, E7, E71 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
• July 21, 2026

  Bank Note Confidence Survey

  The Bank of Canada supplies Canadians with bank notes they can use with confidence—notes that are readily accepted and secure against counterfeiting. To monitor and assess public confidence in the authenticity of bank notes, we survey a representative sample of 2,700 residents of Canada biannually.