Uncategorized

• Time-Inconsistent Manager Incentives and Capital Formation

  Staff working paper 2026-25 José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, Josef Schroth, Tamon Takamura, Yaz Terajima

  In a dynamic model with limited commitment, aggregate payout-based compensation induces managers to raise outside equity yet invest too little today. Per-share compensation eliminates the dilution motive and restores efficient investment, but it does so through slower capital accumulation that better protects incumbent shareholder value.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32, G34, J, J3, J33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models

• Monetary Policy Challenges in a Volatile World

  Staff analytical paper 2026-34 Stefano Gnocchi, Matteo Cacciatore

  Rising volatility and structural shifts—deglobalization, climate risks, and AI—are reshaping inflation and policy trade-offs. Evidence suggests central banks can accommodate supply-driven inflation while balancing inflation and output, as long as expectations stay anchored and policy reflects shock size, persistence, and broader economic conditions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Climate change, International trade, finance and competitiveness

• Balancing Act: Monetary Policy Responses to Natural Disasters

  Staff working paper 2026-28 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Alexander Ueberfeldt, Malik Shukayev

  Natural disasters can create important challenges for monetary policy in resource-rich small open economies. Using a DSGE model calibrated to Canada, we show that most disasters operate as adverse supply shocks, lowering output and raising inflation, thereby creating a trade-off for monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, D, D6, D63, E, E5, E52, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Climate change

• Monetary Policy in an AI-Driven Two-Speed Economy

  Staff working paper 2026-27 Joshua Brault, Maryam Haghighi, Jing Yang

  We analyze monetary policy responses to AI in a two-sector New Keynesian model, distinguishing augmentation and automation. Both reduce labor demand, requiring accommodation that creates inflation trade-offs. Automation worsens them. Aggregate inflation depends on AI’s form and breadth, making policy stabilization more complex and aggregate data potentially misleading.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, J, J2, J23, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity

• Seeing the Economy through Colored Glasses: Partisanship in Macro and (not in) Micro Expectations

  Staff working paper 2026-24 Adrian Monninger, Kyung Woong Koh, Tao Wang

  Households report distinctive views of the macroeconomy along partisan lines, while their expectations about personal finances do not follow the same pattern. Economic inequality remains the major contributor to polarized views of the macroeconomy. Partisan politics are simply a magnifier.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E30, E7, E71 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
• July 20, 2026

  Summary of comments—Spring 2026 Debt Management Strategy consultations

  Today, the Spring 2026 Debt Management Strategy Consultations Summary is being published.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
• July 15, 2026

  Bank of Canada Media Interview – The Globe and Mail

  Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, gave an interview to Mark Rendell of the Globe and Mail, which will be published online and in the newspaper.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• July 15, 2026

  Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼%

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
• July 15, 2026

  Monetary Policy Report—July 2026

  

  Canada’s economy has been weak but is showing signs of improvement. Growth is expected to pick up, and inflation is projected to ease to around 2%. Uncertainty remains elevated.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
• July 15, 2026

  Bank of Canada interest rate announcement  and release of the Monetary Policy Report 

  On Wednesday, July 15, 2026, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the target for the overnight rate. A press release will provide a brief explanation of the decision. The Bank will also publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) at the same time as the rate decision. 

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories