Posts

• July 17, 2025

  Canadian Financial Sector Resiliency Group

  Canadian Financial Sector Resiliency Group (CFRG) is a public-private partnership led by the Bank of Canada that is designed to strengthen the financial sector’s critical infrastructure against risks to business operations, including cyber incidents. Find out about our mandate, membership, or contact us.

• Synthesizing Signals from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

  Staff Discussion Paper 2025-11 Jacob Dolinar, Patrick Sabourin, Matt West

  We introduce the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations indicator. This indicator provides a summary measure of consumer opinions that we can track over time. We construct three underlying sub-indexes—financial health, labour market and consumer spending—that capture different factors influencing consumers’ daily lives.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E7, E71
• July 11, 2025

  Retail payments supervision: Upcoming events

  Access a list of our information sessions—and find out how to sign up.

• How will mortgage payments change at renewal? An updated analysis

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-21 Claudia Godbout, Adam Su, Yang Xu

  We update an assessment of potential changes in payments that mortgage holders could face at renewal in 2025 and 2026. We use an enhanced dataset (RESL2) that provides a more accurate starting point for mortgage balances.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Housing, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, G, G2, G21, G28, R, R2, R20

• The impact of trading flows on Government of Canada bond prices

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-20 Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang

  Trading flows affect Government of Canada bond prices. Our estimates suggest a sale of 1% of the available supply of bonds typically lowers bond prices by 0.2%. From 2000 to 2025, demand from institutional investors, such as Canadian pension funds and foreign investors, explains 69% of quarterly price variation, with the remainder explained by changes in the supply of bonds.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C3, C36, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G11, G12, G2, G23

• Non-bank financial intermediation: Canada’s submission to the 2024 global monitoring report

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-19 Elba Gomez Navas Acevedo, Thomas Thorn

  We share insights about non-bank financial intermediation in Canada in 2023. These data were collected as part of the Bank of Canada’s contribution to the Financial Stability Board’s Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G22, G23

• Examining the Links Between Firm Performance and Insolvency

  Staff Discussion Paper 2025-10 Dylan Hogg, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli

  Assessing insolvency dynamics is essential for evaluating the financial health of non-financial corporations and mitigating macroeconomic and financial stability risks. This study leverages a newly created Statistics Canada dataset linking insolvency records with firm-level financial data to develop a robust framework for monitoring insolvency risk

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, G, G3, G33, L, L2, L20
• June 30, 2025

  Quarterly Research Update – 2025 Q2

  This newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• On the Programmability and Uniformity of Digital Currencies

  Staff Working Paper 2025-18 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet

  Central bankers argue that programmable digital currencies may compromise the uniformity of money. We develop a stylized model to examine this argument and the trade-offs involved in circulating programmable money.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58

• Correcting Selection Bias in a Non-Probability Two-Phase Payment Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2025-17 Heng Chen, John Tsang

  We develop statistical inferences for a non-probability two-phase survey sample when relevant auxiliary information is available from a probability survey sample. The proposed method is assessed by simulation studies and used to analyze a non-probability two phase payment survey.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83