Economic models

• Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey

  Staff working paper 2023-18 Carola Conces Binder, Rodrigo Sekkel

  We review the literature on central bank forecasting with a special focus on the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E47, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting

• Cost Pass-Through with Capacity Constraints and International Linkages

  Staff working paper 2023-16 Reinhard Ellwanger, Hinnerk Gnutzmann, Piotr Śpiewanowski

  How are regional cost shocks passed through into global prices? We investigate the role of short-run capacity constraints and show that they can induce stark non-linearities in the pass-through. We highlight this effect for the market for ammonia, a commodity produced largely from natural gas.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): L, L1, L13, L6, L65, Q, Q4, Q40, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Climate change, International trade, finance and competitiveness