Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Bayesian Inference Staff Working Paper 2025-14 Helmut Lütkepohl, Fei Shang, Luis Uzeda, Tomasz Woźniak We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility. Our analysis focuses on whether a particular structural shock can be identified through heteroskedasticity without imposing any sign or exclusion restrictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C12, C3, C32, E, E6, E62
The Shift in Canadian Immigration Composition and its Effect on Wages Staff Discussion Paper 2025-8 Julien Champagne, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Mallory Long We document recent changes in Canadian immigration, marked by an increasing prevalence of temporary residency. Using microdata from Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey, we show that temporary workers' characteristics and nominal wages have diverged from those of Canadian-born workers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): J, J2, J20, J24, J6, J61
A Fresh Look at the Publication and Citation Gap Between Men and Women: Insights from Economics and Political Science Staff Working Paper 2025-13 Daniel Stockemer, Gabriela Galassi, Engi Abou-El-Kheir In recent years, significant efforts have been made to attract more women into academia and to support their careers, with the goal of increasing their representation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, I, I2, I23, J, J1, J16, J4, J44, J7, J71
Are Hedge Funds a Hedge for Increasing Government Debt Issuance? Staff Discussion Paper 2025-7 Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao This paper studies the rapid increase since 2019 of Government of Canada (GoC) debt issuance alongside greater hedge fund participation at GoC bond auctions. We find a systematic relationship between GoC debt stock and hedge fund bidding shares at auction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, G, G1, G12, G2, G23, H, H6, H63
May 8, 2025 The Bank of Canada releases the 2025 Financial Stability Report The Financial Stability Report will be released on Thursday, May 8, 2025. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
May 8, 2025 Financial Stability Report—2025 Tiff Macklem, Carolyn Rogers, Toni Gravelle, Sharon Kozicki, Rhys R. Mendes, Nicolas Vincent, Michelle Alexopoulos Canada’s financial system is resilient. Overall, households, businesses, banks and non-bank financial intermediaries successfully weathered the pandemic, a period of elevated inflation, and sharp increases in interest rates. But the trade war currently threatens the Canadian economy and poses risks to financial stability. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report