COVID-19 and Implications for Automation Staff Working Paper 2021-25 Alex Chernoff, Casey Warman Occupations held by females with mid-level education face the highest risk of accelerated automation as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): I, I1, I14, I2, I24, J, J1, J15, J16, R, R1, R12
Chinese Monetary Policy and Text Analytics: Connecting Words and Deeds Staff Working Paper 2021-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Xinfen Han, Barbara Sadaba, Mark Kruger What are the main drivers behind the monetary policy reaction function of the People’s Bank of China? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E5, E52, E58
Production Networks and the Propagation of Commodity Price Shocks Staff Working Paper 2020-44 Shutao Cao, Wei Dong We examine the macro implications of commodity price shocks in a model with multiple production sectors that are interconnected within a commodity-exporting small open economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, F, F4, F41
The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil Staff Working Paper 2020-39 Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q47
June 24, 2020 Bank of Canada contributes to new publications by the Network for Greening the Financial System As a member of the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), the Bank of Canada contributed to three publications that aim to improve global understanding of the impact of climate change on the financial system and world economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics, Monetary policy
Scenario Analysis and the Economic and Financial Risks from Climate Change Staff Discussion Paper 2020-3 Erik Ens, Craig Johnston This paper adapts climate-economy models that have been applied in other contexts for use in climate-related scenario analysis. We consider illustrative scenarios for the global economy that could generate economic and financial risks. Our results suggest there are significant economic risks from climate change and the move to a low-carbon economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, D, D5, D58, E, E5, E50, O, O4, O44, P, P1, P18, Q, Q4, Q5, Q54, Q55
Do Protectionist Trade Policies Integrate Domestic Markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute Staff Working Paper 2020-10 Jinggang Guo, Craig Johnston We consider the effects of protectionist trade policies on international and domestic market integration, using evidence from the long-standing softwood lumber trade dispute between Canada and the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Market structure and pricing, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, Q, Q1, Q17
IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity Technical Report No. 116 Patrick Blagrave, Claudia Godbout, Justin-Damien Guénette, René Lalonde, Nikita Perevalov We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, E, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F0, F01, F3, F32, F4, F47
February 5, 2020 Securing prosperity is up to all of us Speech summary Carolyn A. Wilkins Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins explains that Canada is well-positioned to secure prosperity and avoid a long period of slow growth if we take the right steps. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity
February 5, 2020 Our Economic Destiny: Written in R-stars? Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about how to navigate slow growth and discusses the types of policies that would help secure long-term prosperity. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity