June 30, 2023 Canada’s regional economies David Amirault, Matthieu Verstraete, Sarah Miller Strength from diversity Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Labour markets, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
June 30, 2023 Quarterly Research Update – 2023 Q2 This newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
June 30, 2023 CARR releases its recommendations for legacy securities tied to CDOR Today, the Canadian Alternative Reference Rate working group (CARR) published its paper on legacy securities linked to CDOR (i.e. securities referencing CDOR that mature after CDOR’s cessation). Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls Staff Working Paper 2023-37 Temel Taskin, Franz Ulrich Ruch This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, G, G1, G10
June 30, 2023 The Bank of Canada releases the second quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations On Friday, June 30, 2023, the Bank of Canada will release the second quarter issue of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
June 30, 2023 Business Outlook Survey—Second Quarter of 2023 Results from the Business Outlook Survey for the second quarter of 2023, along with those from the April, May and June 2023 Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys, suggest that capacity pressures remain elevated and expectations of significant price increases continue to be widespread. Firms anticipate that sales growth will begin to moderate from exceptionally high rates as signs of greater uncertainty emerge. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
June 30, 2023 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2023 Inflation expectations for one to two years ahead have come down again but remain well above their levels from before the COVID-19 pandemic. The higher cost of living is the most pressing concern for consumers, and along with elevated interest rates, continues to constrain most households’ spending. Homeowners who are planning to renew their mortgage over the next two years and who expect significantly higher payments are likely to plan spending cuts. Some households though are starting to think the worst is behind them. Consumer confidence about the future of the economy has improved alongside their lower inflation expectations. Expected lower interest rates and strong immigration, which boosts housing demand, are behind consumers’ view that housing market will increase over the next year. Workers remain confident about jobs. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada? Staff Discussion Paper 2023-13 Marc-André Gosselin, Temel Taskin We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, E, E3, E5