October 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—October 2026—Canadian economy—Outlook Inflation remains above 3% through much of 2027. It then eases gradually because energy and import cost pressures take time to pass through. Growth is projected to strengthen to 2% in 2027 and 2028.
October 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—October 2026—Global economy Reduced oil supply from the Middle East and strains on refining capacity are pushing up inflation globally. Higher energy prices are weighing on economic activity. Global growth remains resilient, boosted by strong AI‑related investment.
October 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Tiff Macklem Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Monetary Policy Report and the key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the monetary policy decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
October 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—October 2026—Projections The outlook for the Canadian economy has improved somewhat, reflecting data showing stronger-than-expected activity, new incentives for business investment and an upward revision to population. Inflation is revised up because of higher and more persistent energy prices as well as higher non-energy import prices.
October 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—October 2026—In focus—Refinery margins and the persistence of energy inflation Elevated refinery margins have pushed up fuel prices further than the rise in crude oil prices alone would suggest, adding to cost and price pressures. Margins are expected to decline gradually.
October 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—October 2026—Overview Inflation in Canada is projected to remain above 3% through much of 2027, materially higher than previously forecast. The Canadian economy entered the second half of 2026 on firmer footing, and the outlook for economic activity has been revised up. Uncertainty remains elevated.
October 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—October 2026—Risks The evolution of energy prices and Canada’s trade relationship with the United States remain the two most important risks to the outlook for inflation.
October 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—October 2026—In focus—Factors behind the rise in long-term sovereign bond yields Yields on long-term sovereign bonds have risen sharply since the start of the year, reaching their highest levels in more than a decade across many advanced economies.
October 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—October 2026—Canadian economy—Current conditions Inflation remains around 3%, pushed up by higher gasoline prices. The Canadian economy gained strength in the second quarter, but renewed trade tensions with the United States will weigh on near-term growth.
October 28, 2026 Bank of Canada interest rate announcement and release of the Monetary Policy Report On Wednesday, October 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the target for the overnight rate. A press release will provide a brief explanation of the decision. The Bank will also publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) at the same time as the rate decision. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories