December 23, 2025 Publication: Summary of Deliberations 13:30 (ET)A summary of monetary policy deliberations by the Governing Council for the policy decision that was announced two weeks earlier. Content Type(s): Upcoming events
December 16, 2025 Speech: Tiff Macklem, Governor 12:45 (ET) Montréal, QC Content Type(s): Upcoming events
December 10, 2025 Interest Rate Announcement 09:45 (ET) On eight scheduled dates each year, the Bank of Canada announces the setting for the overnight rate target in a press release explaining the factors behind the decision. Content Type(s): Upcoming events
Anticipating changes in bank capital buffer requirements Staff Analytical Note 2025-27 Josef Schroth Time-varying capital buffer requirements are a powerful tool that allow bank regulators to avoid severe financial stress without the cost of imposing very high levels of capital. However, this tool is only effective if banks understand how it is used. I present a model that banks and financial market participants can use to anticipate how time-varying capital buffer requirements change over time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44
Do Firms’ Sales Expectations Hit the Mark? Evidence from the Business Leaders’ Pulse Staff Discussion Paper 2025-15 Owen Gaboury, Farrukh Suvankulov, Mathieu Utting We analyze Canadian data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Leaders’ Pulse, examining firms’ sales growth expectations. We find that expected growth predicts outcomes, uncertainty influences forecast errors and revisions, and firms with weak past performance anticipate and experience weaker future growth. These results highlight the survey’s value for understanding business expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22