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October 15, 2026

Sparks at Bank

Sparks at Bank features insights and analysis from Bank of Canada economists and researchers. It takes its name from the intersection of Sparks and Bank streets in Ottawa where the Bank’s head office is located.

Forecasting oil prices: What works best and when

Sparks at Bank article Reinhard Ellwanger
Oil price forecasts help central banks assess risks to inflation and economic activity. Forecasters often rely on the latest price of oil, on futures markets or on economic models. The best approach depends on how far ahead forecasters are looking and whether they need only a forecast or also an explanation of what’s behind it.
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