July 6, 2026 The Bank of Canada releases the second quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations On Monday, July 6, 2026, the Bank of Canada will release the second quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
July 2, 2026 Updates to Government of Canada Cash Management Bond Buyback Program The Bank of Canada and the Department of Finance are announcing today that the maximum repurchase amount for Government of Canada Cash Management Bond Buyback (CMBB) operations will no longer be fixed at $2 billion per operation and instead be determined by available excess cash at the time of the operation. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
Monte Carlo Likelihood-Ratio Tests for Markov Switching Models Staff analytical paper 2026-34 Gabriel Rodriguez Rondon, Jean-Marie Dufour This paper develops Monte Carlo likelihood-ratio tests for determining the number of regimes in Markov switching models. Unlike most existing procedures, which focus on testing one versus two regimes, the proposed methods allow testing an arbitrary number of regimes. They are valid in finite samples, robust to identification problems, and applicable to nonstationary, multivariate, and Markov switching GARCH models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, C2, C22, C3, C32, C4, C46, C5, C52, E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Supply and Demand-Driven inflation: Decomposition and policy implications Staff analytical paper 2026-33 Kira Kang, Rodrigo Sekkel, Temel Taskin, Jing Yang This note uses detailed expenditure data to decompose Canadian inflation into supply- and demand-driven components. The analysis sheds light on the drivers of post-pandemic inflation and shows that monetary policy primarily affects and responds to demand-driven inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Boundaries of Bank Funding: The Case of Canadian Cash ETFs Staff analytical paper 2026-32 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Vincent Meh, Jayden Plener The rise and transformation of Canadian cash ETFs highlight that banking liquidity regulation affects more than bank resilience. By changing the relative attractiveness of deposits and securities, it can shape where asset managers allocate their cash across the financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
July 1, 2026 Panel: Tiff Macklem, Governor Sintra, Portugal ECB Forum on Central Banking Content Type(s): Upcoming events
July 1, 2026 Panel with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada On Wednesday, July 1, 2026, Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, will participate in a panel at the ECB Forum on Central Banking. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
June 29, 2026 Reminder: PSP reporting obligations under the RPAA The Bank of Canada is issuing this communication to remind all payment service providers registered under the Retail Payment Activities Act of their ongoing reporting obligations. Content Type(s): Regulatory news Subject(s): Retail payments, Reporting, Supervision