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July 27, 2026

Release: Market Participants Survey

10:30 (ET)
The Market Participants Survey is conducted quarterly. Bank of Canada staff reach out to a diverse set of participants in financial markets to gather their views on key macroeconomic and financial variables as well as on monetary policy.

Content Type(s): Upcoming events

Balancing Act: Monetary Policy Responses to Natural Disasters

Staff working paper 2026-28 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Alexander Ueberfeldt, Malik Shukayev
Natural disasters can create important challenges for monetary policy in resource-rich small open economies. Using a DSGE model calibrated to Canada, we show that most disasters operate as adverse supply shocks, lowering output and raising inflation, thereby creating a trade-off for monetary policy.

Monetary Policy in an AI-Driven Two-Speed Economy

Staff working paper 2026-27 Joshua Brault, Maryam Haghighi, Jing Yang
We analyze monetary policy responses to AI in a two-sector New Keynesian model, distinguishing augmentation and automation. Both reduce labor demand, requiring accommodation that creates inflation trade-offs. Automation worsens them. Aggregate inflation depends on AI’s form and breadth, making policy stabilization more complex and aggregate data potentially misleading.

From Stress to Strategy: How Banks Balance the Scales

Staff working paper 2026-26 Ruben Hipp, Javier Ojea Ferreiro
This paper develops a stress-testing framework in which banks strategically adjust their balance sheets in response to regulatory constraints and market conditions. Applied to Canada’s largest banks, it quantifies the effects of macroprudential policies on lending and identifies systemic vulnerabilities through reverse stress testing.
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