A Structural VAR Approach to Core Inflation in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2008-10 Sylvain Martel The author constructs a measure of core inflation using a structural vector autoregression containing oil-price growth, output growth, and inflation. This "macro-founded" measure of inflation forecasts total inflation at least as well as other, atheoretical measures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E31
On Portfolio Separation Theorems with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Attitudes towards Risk Staff Working Paper 2008-16 Fousseni Chabi-Yo, Eric Ghysels, Eric Renault The early work of Tobin (1958) showed that portfolio allocation decisions can be reduced to a two stage process: first decide the relative allocation of assets across the risky assets, and second decide how to divide total wealth between the risky assets and the safe asset. This so called twofund separation relies on special assumptions on either returns or preferences. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, D, D5, D58, G, G1, G11, G12
Inflation Targeting and Price-Level-Path Targeting in the GEM: Some Open Economy Considerations Staff Working Paper 2008-6 Donald Coletti, René Lalonde, Dirk Muir This paper compares the performance of simple inflation targeting (IT) and price-level path targeting (PLPT) rules to stabilize the macroeconomy, in response to a series of shocks, similar to those seen in Canada and the United States over the 1983 to 2004 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C52, E, E1, E17, E3, E31, E5, E52
Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance Staff Working Paper 2007-56 Òscar Jordà, Sharon Kozicki A covariance-stationary vector of variables has a Wold representation whose coefficients can be semi-parametrically estimated by local projections (Jordà, 2005). Substituting the Wold representations for variables in model expressions generates restrictions that can be used by the method of minimum distance to estimate model parameters. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53, E, E4, E47
Implications of Asymmetry Risk for Portfolio Analysis and Asset Pricing Staff Working Paper 2007-47 Fousseni Chabi-Yo, Dietmar Leisen, Eric Renault Asymmetric shocks are common in markets; securities' payoffs are not normally distributed and exhibit skewness. This paper studies the portfolio holdings of heterogeneous agents with preferences over mean, variance and skewness, and derives equilibrium prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, D, D5, D58, G, G1, G11, G12
Multivariate Realized Stock Market Volatility Staff Working Paper 2007-20 Gregory Bauer, Keith Vorkink We present a new matrix-logarithm model of the realized covariance matrix of stock returns. The model uses latent factors which are functions of both lagged volatility and returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53, G, G1, G14
Optimization in a Simulation Setting: Use of Function Approximation in Debt Strategy Analysis Staff Working Paper 2007-13 David Bolder, Tiago Rubin The stochastic simulation model suggested by Bolder (2003) for the analysis of the federal government's debt-management strategy provides a wide variety of useful information. It does not, however, assist in determining an optimal debt-management strategy for the government in its current form. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C0, C1, C14, C15, C5, C51, C52, C6, C61, C65, E, E6, G, G1, H, H6, H63
How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables Staff Working Paper 2007-1 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53
Linking Real Activity and Financial Markets: The Bonds, Equity, and Money (BEAM) Model Staff Working Paper 2006-42 Céline Gauthier, Fuchun Li The authors estimate a small monthly macroeconometric model (BEAM, for bonds, equity, and money) of the Canadian economy built around three cointegrating relationships linking financial and real variables over the 1975–2002 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E4
Short-Run and Long-Run Causality between Monetary Policy Variables and Stock Prices Staff Working Paper 2006-39 Jean-Marie Dufour, David Tessier The authors examine simultaneously the causal links connecting monetary policy variables, real activity, and stock returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, C3, C32, C5, C51, C53, E, E5, E52