Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni Staff Working Paper 2004-46 Charles St-Arnaud The author describes results obtained by using a new methodology to estimate potential output for the United Kingdom. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E23, E3, E32
Investment, Private Information, and Social Learning: A Case Study of the Semiconductor Industry Staff Working Paper 2004-32 Rose Cunningham Social learning models of investment provide an interesting explanation for sudden changes in investment behaviour. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, E, E3, E32, L, L6, L63
Translog ou Cobb-Douglas? Le rôle des durées d'utilisation des facteurs Staff Working Paper 2004-19 Eric Heyer, Florian Pelgrin, Arnaud Sylvain Using French data on industrial firms over the period 1989-2001, the authors estimate a "flexible" Translog production function that accounts for the volumes and durations of factor utilization. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, J, J2, J23
Durées d'utilisation des facteurs et fonction de production : une estimation par la méthode des moments généralisés en système Staff Working Paper 2004-12 Eric Heyer, Florian Pelgrin, Arnaud Sylvain Although a number of studies have demonstrated the importance of the degree of factor utilization in economic analysis, the impact of the durations of utilization in a production function remains largely unknown, particularly in terms of the duration of equipment utilization. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, J, J2, J23
Estimating Policy-Neutral Interest Rates for Canada Using a Dynamic Stochastic General-Equilibrium Framework Staff Working Paper 2004-9 Jean-Paul Lam, Greg Tkacz In an era when the primary policy instrument is the level of the short-term interest rate, a comparison of that rate with some equilibrium rate can be a useful guide for policy and a convenient method to measure the stance of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37
Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine Staff Working Paper 2004-3 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37, F, F4, F47
Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canadian Sectoral Output Staff Working Paper 2003-44 Francisco Barillas, Christoph Schleicher The authors examine evidence of long- and short-run co-movement in Canadian sectoral output data. Their framework builds on a vector-error-correction representation that allows them to test for and compute full-information maximum-likelihood estimates of models with codependent cycle restrictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C2, C22, C3, C32, E, E3, E32
Are Wealth Effects Important for Canada? Staff Working Paper 2003-30 Lise Pichette, Dominique Tremblay The authors examine the link between consumption and disaggregate wealth in Canada. They use a vector-error-correction model in which permanent and transitory shocks are identified using the restrictions implied by cointegration proposed by King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991) and Gonzalo and Granger (1995). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E21
Un modèle « PAC » d'analyse et de prévision des dépenses des ménages américains Staff Working Paper 2003-13 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde Traditional structural models cannot distinguish whether changes in activity are a function of altered expectations today or lagged responses to past plans. Polynomial-adjustment-cost (PAC) models remove this ambiguity by explicitly separating observed dynamic behaviour into movements that have been induced by changes in expectations, and responses to expectations, that have been delayed because of adjustment costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E21, E3, E32
Shift Contagion in Asset Markets Staff Working Paper 2003-5 Toni Gravelle, Maral Kichian, James Morley The authors develop a new methodology to investigate how crises cause the relationship between financial variables to change. Two possible sources of increased co-movement between markets during high-variance episodes are considered: larger common shocks operating through standard market linkages, and a structural change in the propagation of shocks between markets, called "shift contagion." Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, F, F4, F42, G, G1, G15