Supporting the Transition to Net-Zero Emissions: The Evolving Role of Central Banks Staff Discussion Paper 2023-31 Karen McGuinness While climate change was largely tackled by government policies in the past, central banks are increasingly grappling with the risks climate change poses. They are evaluating their operational policies to reflect these risks and the transition to a net-zero economy. This paper explores the trade-offs and considerations central banks face. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E5, E58, E6, E63, G, G3, G32, Q, Q5, Q54
Do hedge funds support liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market? Staff Analytical Note 2023-11 Jabir Sandhu, Rishi Vala While Government of Canada bond transactions of hedge funds are typically in the opposite direction to those of other market participants, during the peak period of market turmoil in March 2020, hedge funds sold these bonds, just as other market participants did. This shows that hedge funds can at times contribute to one-sided markets and amplify declines in market liquidity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, D5, D53, G, G1, G12, G14, G2, G23
Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID-19: Does It “Get in All of the Cracks”? Staff Working Paper 2022-45 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, Nicholas Sander The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an atypical recession in which some sectors of the economy boomed and others collapsed. This required a unique fiscal policy reaction to both support firms and stimulate activity in sectors with slack. Was fiscal policy able to get where it was needed? Mostly, yes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, E, E6, E62, F, F4, F41
Job Ladder and Business Cycles Staff Working Paper 2022-14 Felipe Alves During downturns, workers get stuck in low-productivity jobs and wages remain stagnant. I build an heterogenous agent incomplete market model with a full job ladder that accounts for these facts. An adverse financial shock calibrated to the US Great Recession replicates the period’s slow recovery and missing disinflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32
Household Heterogeneity and the Performance of Monetary Policy Frameworks Staff Working Paper 2022-12 Edouard Djeutem, Mario He, Abeer Reza, Yang Zhang Consumption inequality and a low interest rate environment are two important trends in today’s economy. But the implications they may have—and how those implications interact—within different monetary policy frameworks are not well understood. We study the ranking of alternative frameworks that take these trends into account. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk Staff Working Paper 2022-4 Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra, Sanjay Singh We explore the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk to the rest of the economy. We also consider whether policy can be used to reduce this risk—either by increasing the supply of publicly backed safe assets or by reducing the demand for safe assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D5, D52, D8, D84, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G10, G12
Transition Scenarios for Analyzing Climate-Related Financial Risk Staff Discussion Paper 2022-1 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Erik Ens, Olivier Gervais, Hossein Hosseini, Craig Johnston, Serdar Kabaca, Miguel Molico, Sergey Paltsev, Alex Proulx, Argyn Toktamyssov Climate transition scenarios clarify climate-related risks to our economy and financial system. This paper summarizes key results of Canada-relevant scenarios developed in a pilot project on climate risk by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, D, D5, D58, E, E5, E50, O, O4, O44, P, P1, P18, Q, Q5, Q54
Strategic Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service Staff Working Paper 2020-55 Lerby Ergun, Andreas Uthemann We look at the informational content of consensus pricing in opaque over-the-counter markets. We show that the availability of price data informs participants mainly about other participants’ valuations, rather than about the value of a financial security. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, D8, D83, G, G1, G12, G14
Production Networks and the Propagation of Commodity Price Shocks Staff Working Paper 2020-44 Shutao Cao, Wei Dong We examine the macro implications of commodity price shocks in a model with multiple production sectors that are interconnected within a commodity-exporting small open economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, F, F4, F41
Why Do Central Banks Make Public Announcements of Open Market Operations? Staff Working Paper 2020-35 Narayan Bulusu Central banks communicate the results of open market operations. This helps participants in financial markets more accurately estimate the prevailing demand and supply conditions in the market for overnight loans. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): D, D5, D52, E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21