Inflation, Nominal Portfolios, and Wealth Redistribution in Canada Staff Working Paper 2008-19 Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima There is currently a policy debate on potential refinements to monetary policy regimes in countries with low and stable inflation such as the U.S. and Canada. For example, in Canada, a systematic review of the current inflation targeting framework is underway. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D58, E, E3, E31, E5, E50
Stablecoins and Their Risks to Financial Stability Staff Discussion Paper 2022-20 Cameron MacDonald, Laura Zhao What risks could stablecoins pose to the financial system? We argue that the stabilization mechanisms of stablecoins give rise to the risk of confidence runs, which can propagate to broader cryptoasset markets and the traditional financial sector. We also argue that stablecoins can contribute to financial stability risks by facilitating the buildup of leverage and liquidity mismatch in decentralized finance. Such risks cannot be addressed by ensuring the price stability of stablecoins alone. Finally, we explore the potential implications of stablecoins for the current system of bank-intermediated credit and for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E44, E5, E58, G, G2, G23
India and the Global Demand for Commodities: Is There an Elephant in the Room? Staff Discussion Paper 2008-18 Michael Francis, Corinne Luu After 10 years of impressive growth, India is now the fourth largest economy in the world. Yet, to date, India's impact on global commodity markets has been muted. The authors examine how India's domestic and trade policies have distorted and constrained its demand for commodities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, O, O1, O13, O5, O53
Canadian Non-Energy Exports: Past Performance and Future Prospects Staff Discussion Paper 2014-1 André Binette, Daniel de Munnik, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant Canada has continued to lose market share in the United States since the Great Recession, beyond what our bilateral competitiveness measures (relative unit labour costs) would suggest. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43
Emerging Asia's Impact on Food and Oil Prices: A Model-Based Analysis Staff Discussion Paper 2009-3 René Lalonde, Philipp Maier, Dirk Muir The authors explore the usefulness of macroeconomic models in analyzing global economic developments by examining movements in commodity prices between July 2007 and July 2008. They use the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model and investigate the longer-term outlook for commodity prices by constructing two different, globally consistent, scenarios for emerging Asia. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E5, E50, E58, E6, E60
Forecasting the Price of Oil Staff Working Paper 2011-15 Ron Alquist, Lutz Kilian, Robert Vigfusson We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47
January 20, 2012 A Fundamental Review of Capital Charges Associated with Trading Activities Financial System Review - December 2011 Grahame Johnson Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Volatility Transmission Between Foreign Exchange and Money Markets Staff Working Paper 2000-16 Shafiq K. Ebrahim This paper uses trivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models to study price and volatility spillovers between the foreign exchange and associated money markets. Three models are estimated using data on U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar, U.S. dollar/Deutsche mark, and U.S. dollar/Japanese yen daily exchange rate returns together with returns on 90-day Eurodollar, Euro Canada, Euromark, and Euroyen deposits. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G15
Labour Shares and the Role of Capital and Labour Market Imperfections Staff Discussion Paper 2009-2 Lena Suchanek In continental Europe, labour shares in national income have exhibited considerable variation since 1970. Empirical and theoretical research suggests that the evolution of labour markets and labour market imperfections can, in part, explain this phenomenon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C7, C78, E, E2, E25, J, J6, J64
December 15, 1999 The Exchange Rate, Productivity, and the Standard of Living Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1999–2000 Robert Lafrance, Lawrence L. Schembri This article examines the recent proposition that the decline in Canada's standard of living relative to that of the United States is causally related to the decline in our exchange rate. The authors explore the main channels through which the exchange rate and the standard of living could be related—productivity and the terms of trade—focusing mainly on productivity. They conclude that the decline in world commodity prices and weak demand for domestic output were affecting both Canada's standard of living and the exchange rate and that the flexible exchange rate regime itself did not play an independent role. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rates