Inequality in Parental Transfers, Borrowing Constraints and Optimal Higher Education Subsidies Staff Working Paper 2019-7 Youngmin Park This paper studies optimal education subsidies when parental transfers are unequally distributed across students and cannot be publicly observed. After documenting substantial inequality in parental transfers among US college students with similar family resources, I examine its implications for how the education subsidy should vary with schooling level and family resources to minimize inefficiencies generated by borrowing constraints. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D6, D61, D64, D8, D82, I, I2, I22, J, J2, J24
Predictive Ability of Commodity Prices for the Canadian Dollar Staff Analytical Note 2016-2 Kimberly Berg, Pierre Guérin, Yuko Imura Recent sharp declines in commodity prices and the simultaneous depreciation of the Canadian dollar (CAD) relative to the U.S. dollar (USD) have rekindled an interest in the relationship between commodity prices and the CAD-USD exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates
Sterilized Intervention in Emerging-Market Economies: Trends, Costs, and Risks Staff Discussion Paper 2008-4 Robert Lavigne The author examines recent trends in sterilized intervention among emerging-market economies, to determine the size and extent of this policy in relation to earlier periods of heavy reserve accumulation. He then analyzes whether the domestic costs and risks of substantial and prolonged sterilization are beginning to manifest themselves. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F3, F31, O, O2, O24
Covariates Hiding in the Tails Staff Working Paper 2021-45 Milian Bachem, Lerby Ergun, Casper G. de Vries We characterize the bias in cross-sectional Hill estimates caused by common underlying factors and propose two simple-to-implement remedies. To test for the presence, direction and size of the bias, we use monthly US stock returns and annual US Census county population data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C14, C5, C58
Monetary Policy Spillover to Small Open Economies: Is the Transmission Different under Low Interest Rates? Staff Working Paper 2021-62 Jin Cao, Valeriya Dinger, Tomás Gómez, Zuzana Gric, Martin Hodula, Alejandro Jara, Ragnar Juelsrud, Karolis Liaudinskas, Simona Malovaná, Yaz Terajima Does the transmission of monetary policy change when interest rates are low or negative? We shed light on this question by analyzing the international bank lending channels of monetary policy using regulatory data on banks from four small open economies: Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic and Norway. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F34, F4, F42, G, G2, G21, G28
2018 Merchant Acceptance Survey Staff Analytical Note 2019-31 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson In 2015, the Bank of Canada surveyed merchants and found that cash was nearly universally accepted (Fung, Huynh and Kosse 2017). Since 2015, retail payments in Canada have become increasingly digitalized, as many Canadians have adopted digital payment innovations like contactless cards and Interac e-Transfer. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, D, D2, D22, E, E4, L, L2
Inflation, Nominal Portfolios, and Wealth Redistribution in Canada Staff Working Paper 2008-19 Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima There is currently a policy debate on potential refinements to monetary policy regimes in countries with low and stable inflation such as the U.S. and Canada. For example, in Canada, a systematic review of the current inflation targeting framework is underway. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D58, E, E3, E31, E5, E50
Are Wealth Effects Important for Canada? Staff Working Paper 2003-30 Lise Pichette, Dominique Tremblay The authors examine the link between consumption and disaggregate wealth in Canada. They use a vector-error-correction model in which permanent and transitory shocks are identified using the restrictions implied by cointegration proposed by King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991) and Gonzalo and Granger (1995). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E21
The Prudential Toolkit with Shadow Banking Staff Working Paper 2025-9 Kinda Hachem, Martin Kuncl Can regulators keep pace with banks’ creative regulatory workarounds? Our analysis unpacks the trade-offs between fixed regulations and crisis-triggered rules, showing that the latter are especially prone to circumvention—and can trigger larger, costlier bailouts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28
Stablecoins and Their Risks to Financial Stability Staff Discussion Paper 2022-20 Cameron MacDonald, Laura Zhao What risks could stablecoins pose to the financial system? We argue that the stabilization mechanisms of stablecoins give rise to the risk of confidence runs, which can propagate to broader cryptoasset markets and the traditional financial sector. We also argue that stablecoins can contribute to financial stability risks by facilitating the buildup of leverage and liquidity mismatch in decentralized finance. Such risks cannot be addressed by ensuring the price stability of stablecoins alone. Finally, we explore the potential implications of stablecoins for the current system of bank-intermediated credit and for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E44, E5, E58, G, G2, G23