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We measure how the change in the share of constrained households in Canada following the COVID-19 recession has impacted the effectiveness of monetary policy.

Results from the autumn Business Outlook Survey point to continued positive business sentiment across the country, with business activity becoming entrenched. Firms’ prospects remain healthy, although several survey indicators have moderated from the strong summer results.

The outlook for Canadian economic growth in 2026 and 2027 is evolving generally as anticipated. Inflation is expected to increase in 2026 due to higher gasoline prices caused by the war in the Middle East. It will then ease in 2027 as oil prices are assumed to moderate.

This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on October 29, 2025.

We discuss the competition and innovation arguments for issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). A CBDC could be an effective competition policy tool for payments. A CBDC could also support the vibrancy of the digital economy. It could help solve market failures and foster competition and innovation in new digital payments markets.

Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that inflationary pressures continue to ease. Firms feel appropriately equipped to meet current and anticipated soft demand. Their investment and hiring plans are therefore modest. Expectations for growth in wages, input costs and selling prices have continued to normalize as inflation has come down.

Results from the Business Outlook Survey for the second quarter of 2022, along with those from the April, May and June 2022 Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys, suggest that capacity pressures remain elevated and expectations of significant price increases continue to be widespread. Firms anticipate that sales growth will begin to moderate from exceptionally high rates as signs of greater uncertainty emerge.

Higher interest rates are working to ease price pressures in Canada and inflation is coming down, though progress to the 2% target is slow. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3½% until the middle of 2024, returning to target in 2025.

Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse reveal that firms’ outlooks and intentions remain subdued despite a gradual improvement in sentiment. Expectations for growth in domestic and export sales are still soft. Most firms do not plan to increase staffing, and investment intentions are restrained. While businesses continue to expect cost increases from tariffs and trade uncertainty, weak demand limits their ability to pass these costs through to prices. One-year-ahead inflation expectations remain below the peak reached earlier in the trade conflict.

Growth in the Canadian economy is projected to slow from 3 per cent in 2017 to 2.2 per cent this year and 1.6 per cent in 2019.