When parents co‑sign a mortgage to help their adult children buy their first home Sparks at Bank article Shaoteng Li Rising housing costs are leading to an increasing share of first-time homebuyers seeking financial support from their parents. Specifically, Canada has experienced a noticeable rise in instances of parents co-signing mortgages with their adult children. This practice allows buyers to purchase more expensive homes—but it can also make both parties vulnerable to financial disruptions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
Measuring how financial sector economists respond to the tone of Bank of Canada communications Sparks at Bank article Amanda Wang, Xu Zhang, Xinfen Han The words central banks use to explain policy decisions matter. They can, in some cases, affect financial markets just like changes in policy interest rates do. For this reason, we built a tool to track the tone of the Bank of Canada’s policy communications and assess how tone affects market perceptions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
The rise in the Canadian term premium in a global context Sparks at Bank article Eugene Trostin, James Ketcheson, Antonio Diez de los Rios In Canada and abroad, yields on long-term government bonds have stayed high even as policy interest rates have fallen. This is due to rising term premiums―the extra compensation investors demand for holding these bonds. A key factor driving higher term premiums is global concerns about the ability of markets to absorb substantial amounts of government debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Women in economics: What data from top universities reveal about gender equity Sparks at Bank article Gabriela Galassi In the field of economics, on average, women tend to produce fewer research articles and be cited less often than men. But this appears to be changing. A newly compiled dataset about scholars at top universities around the world helps us identify where individual gender gaps exist. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
What typically happens before households fall behind on mortgage payments Sparks at Bank article Laura Zhao, Jia Qi Xiao Canadians usually pay their mortgages on time. But some fall behind on mortgage payments. Before they do, homeowners often increase their use of credit cards and lines of credit, and then fall behind on those payments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
Assessing the Buy Canadian movement one year later Sparks at Bank article Olga Bilyk, Jacob Dolinar Canada and the United States have both benefited from decades of free trade. But US tariffs significantly changed this relationship, and Canadians reacted. In our research, we explore the Buy Canadian sentiment one year after it emerged and measure how much it has shifted travel patterns and spending in grocery stores. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The trade conflict hasn’t derailed supply chains. Here’s why. Sparks at Bank article Raheeb Dastagir, Louis Poirier Global supply chains have been working well despite abrupt shifts in US trade policy and rising global tensions in 2025. A big reason for this is that companies have improved how goods are shipped and warehoused to keep products flowing around the world. But these supply chains could be tested even more if the trade conflict worsens. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Hedge funds and their trading strategies in the Government of Canada bond market Sparks at Bank article Andreas Uthemann, Adrian Walton Hedge funds are active in Canadian government bond markets and help improve market efficiency. But their trading strategies are not well understood. We offer insights into the range of strategies hedge funds use beyond the more commonly known cash-futures basis trade. We also explore the concentration of trading activity among a few large funds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Understanding the resurgence of food inflation in 2025 Sparks at Bank article Olga Bilyk Inflation in grocery prices picked up in 2025, largely due to rising cost pressures that emerged in late 2024 and worked their way through supply chains. Compared with the cost pressures experienced during the COVID‑19 pandemic, these have been more limited, narrower in scope and more commonly tied to imported items. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
What’s behind the slowdown in Toronto’s condo market Sparks at Bank article Benjamin Straus, Nishaad Rao Strong population growth, low interest rates and robust investor demand drove an expansion in Toronto’s condo market over the past decade. But times have changed. Toronto’s condos are no longer providing substantial returns for short-term investors because population growth has eased and interest rates have risen. This is challenging the business models of condo builders. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply