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The Market Participants Survey results are based on questionnaire responses from about 27 financial market participants.

The Canadian economy continues to adjust to US tariffs and the new global trade landscape. This adjustment will take time and growth is expected to be modest. Inflation is projected to remain near the 2% target.

Results of the fourth-quarter 2025 survey show that concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty related to the trade conflict continue to have a negative impact on consumers. As a result, even though labour market conditions improved somewhat, the CSCE indicator declined slightly. Expectations for near-term inflation remain higher than they were before the pandemic, while those for long-term inflation eased below pre-pandemic levels.

Firms’ sentiment remains subdued, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. After a weak year, domestic sales growth is expected to improve slightly. Export sales are expected to be modest. Most businesses plan to maintain or decrease current staffing levels, and they continue to prioritize investment spending on routine maintenance. Firms reported less pressure than last quarter from tariff-related cost increases. Most do not anticipate substantial increases in selling prices. Inflation expectations remain roughly stable between 2.5% and 3%.

This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on December 10, 2025.

Quarterly Financial Report - Third Quarter 2025 - For the period ended September 30, 2025, unaudited

This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on October 29, 2025.

The Market Participants Survey results are based on questionnaire responses from about 30 financial market participants.

Canada’s economy is adjusting to tariffs and the sharp drop in demand for exports. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is leading to higher costs. Total inflation has been around 2%, while underlying inflation remains about 2½%.

Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse reveal that firms’ outlooks and intentions remain subdued despite a gradual improvement in sentiment. Expectations for growth in domestic and export sales are still soft. Most firms do not plan to increase staffing, and investment intentions are restrained. While businesses continue to expect cost increases from tariffs and trade uncertainty, weak demand limits their ability to pass these costs through to prices. One-year-ahead inflation expectations remain below the peak reached earlier in the trade conflict.