Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018 Staff Analytical Note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
April 9, 2018 Release of the 2017 Bank of Canada FMI Oversight Activities Annual Report The Bank of Canada today published the 2017 annual report on its oversight of payment clearing and settlement systems, which are also known as financial market infrastructures or FMIs. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
Personal Experiences and House Price Expectations: Evidence from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations Staff Analytical Note 2018-8 Mikael Khan, Matthieu Verstraete In this work, we use novel Canadian survey data to study how expectations of future changes in house prices are influenced by personal experiences. We find that recently experienced changes in local house prices are routinely extrapolated into expectations of year-ahead changes in national house prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing
April 9, 2018 Business Outlook Survey - Spring 2018 Results of the spring Business Outlook Survey suggest that business sentiment continues to be positive, supported by healthy sales prospects. Due to recent strong demand, capacity and labour pressures are evident in most regions. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
April 9, 2018 Senior Loan Officer Survey - First Quarter of 2018 This quarter, the Bank will begin reporting on both household and business lending conditions in our expanded Senior Loan Officer Survey. Overall, household lending conditions tightened in the first quarter of 2018, driven by mortgage-related lending, while business lending conditions eased slightly. Content Type(s): Publications, Senior Loan Officer Survey
Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability? Staff Working Paper 2018-17 José Dorich, Nicholas Labelle, Vadym Lepetyuk, Rhys R. Mendes Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2 per cent. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3 or 4 per cent could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52