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Staff discussion papers

Staff discussion papers are completed staff research studies on a wide variety of subjects relevant to central bank policy.

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270 result(s)

Strengthening IMF Surveillance: An Assessment of Recent Reforms

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-10 Robert Lavigne, Lawrence L. Schembri
The authors assess the potential impact of recently approved reforms to International Monetary Fund (IMF) surveillance; namely, the "2007 Decision on Bilateral Surveillance Over Members' Policies" and the "Statement of Surveillance Priorities" (SSP). They conclude that these complementary reforms have the potential to create a comprehensive and coherent framework for IMF surveillance. If implemented properly, […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33

The Outlook for the Global Supply of Oil: Running on Faith?

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-9 Olivier Gervais, Ilan Kolet
The dramatic reduction in global demand, and the decline in the spot price of crude oil in the second half of last year, may have significant implications for the future supply of oil. Investments in conventional methods of extraction have been constrained, since easily accessible oil reserves are typically concentrated in countries with geopolitical uncertainty and/or state-run oil companies.

The Role of Convenience and Risk in Consumers' Means of Payment

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-8 Carlos Arango, Varya Taylor
Using data from a 2004 survey of the Canadian public, the authors study the role of convenience and risk in consumers' use of cash relative to debit and credit cards. The authors find that consumers who perceive debit cards and credit cards to be more convenient and less risky than cash use them more frequently.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, L, L2

Household Debt, Assets, and Income in Canada: A Microdata Study

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-7 Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima, David Xiao Chen, Thomas J. Carter
The authors use microdata from the 1999 and 2005 Surveys of Financial Security to identify changes in household debt, and discuss their potential implications for monetary policy and financial stability. They document an increase in the debt-income ratio, which rose from 0.75 to 0.95, on average.

Assessing the Implementation of the IMF's 2007 Surveillance Decision

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-6 Robert Lavigne, Garima Vasishtha
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently adopted the "2007 Decision on Bilateral Surveillance Over Members' Policies," a landmark reform that modernizes the general principles of IMF surveillance. However, support for the reform was not unanimous, and doubts have been expressed about how the Decision would be applied in practice. The authors assess the first year […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33

Are Commodity Prices Useful Leading Indicators of Inflation?

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-5 Calista Cheung
Commodity prices have increased dramatically and persistently over the past several years, followed by a sharp reversal in recent months. These large and persistent movements in commodity prices raise questions about their implications for global inflation. The process of globalization has motivated much debate over whether global factors have become more important in driving the […]

Relative Prices, Trading Gains, and Real GDI: The Case of Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-4 Yi Zheng
Treating imports as intermediate inputs to domestic production, the author adopts the translog function approach to model real gross domestic income (GDI) in Canada over the 1961–2006 period. She explores the role of price ratios, such as terms of trade and the real effective exchange rate, in explaining changes in real GDI, trade openness, trade […]

Emerging Asia's Impact on Food and Oil Prices: A Model-Based Analysis

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-3 René Lalonde, Philipp Maier, Dirk Muir
The authors explore the usefulness of macroeconomic models in analyzing global economic developments by examining movements in commodity prices between July 2007 and July 2008. They use the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model and investigate the longer-term outlook for commodity prices by constructing two different, globally consistent, scenarios for emerging Asia.

Labour Shares and the Role of Capital and Labour Market Imperfections

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-2 Lena Suchanek
In continental Europe, labour shares in national income have exhibited considerable variation since 1970. Empirical and theoretical research suggests that the evolution of labour markets and labour market imperfections can, in part, explain this phenomenon.

Canada and the IMF: Trailblazer or Prodigal Son?

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-1 Michael Bordo, Lawrence L. Schembri, Tamara Gomes
Canada played an important role in the postwar establishment of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), yet it was also the first major member to challenge the orthodoxy of the BrettonWoods par value system by abandoning it in 1950 in favour of a floating, market-determined exchange rate.
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