Sergio Lago Alves is a Senior Economist in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department at Bank of Canada. He received his PhD in Economics from the University of California Santa Cruz (UCSC) in 2011. His research interests are primarily focused on Trend Inflation; Monetary policy; Frictions on expectations and survey-based forecasts; Monte Carlo and Bayesian inference; Quantitative methods; Unemployment and Labor; Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC); Macroeconomic DSGE models; Effects of the Zero Lower Bound on interest rates.
How can Surveys of Professional Forecasters (SPF) be used to improve inflation forecasts? By using US historical quarterly data on SPF forecasts, we provide better understanding of how we can use forecast disagreement to improve our own forecasts.
