Posts

• March 24, 2026

  Release of the 2025 Bank of Canada FMI Oversight Activities Annual Report

  The Bank of Canada today published the Bank of Canada Oversight Activities for Financial Market Infrastructures 2025 Annual Report.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices

• Examining the macro drivers of mortgage arrears in Canada

  Staff analytical paper 2026-12 Thomas Michael Pugh, Tao Wang, Taylor Webley

  Mortgage debt represents over 70% of all Canadian household financial liabilities, and the performance of these debts is critical to the health of the financial system. We explore the relationships between mortgage arrears and key macroeconomic fundamentals such as labour market variables, interest rates, house prices and inflation. We then develop a framework to assess future household mortgage stress.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E37, E5, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
• March 23, 2026

  Changes to Bank of Canada Governing Council

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada announced today the departure of Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes on April 10, and the retirement of Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki on July 15.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
• March 18, 2026

  Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2¼%

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
• March 18, 2026

  Monetary Policy Decision Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening statement Tiff Macklem Ottawa, Ontario

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the monetary policy decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
• March 18, 2026

  Interest Rate Announcement

  09:45 (ET)
  On eight scheduled dates each year, the Bank of Canada announces the setting for the overnight rate target in a press release explaining the factors behind the decision.

  Content Type(s): Upcoming events
• March 18, 2026

  Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement

  On Wednesday, March 18, 2026, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the target for the overnight rate. A press release will provide a brief explanation of the decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories

• Government of Canada Fixed-Income Market Ecology II: Government of Canada Bond Dealing

  Staff analytical paper 2026-11 Petr Kocourek, Adrian Walton

  This analytical paper examines the organization of Government of Canada bond dealing. We focus on dealers’ hedging and funding practices, the market infrastructures that support those practices, and trading costs across the yield curve. This paper builds on earlier work discussing Canada’s fixed-income market: "Government of Canada Fixed-Income Market Ecology."

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk

• Beating the “pros” with a semi-structural model of their own inflation forecasts

  Staff working paper 2026-11 Sergio A. Lago Alves, Waldyr Dutra Areosa, Carlos Viana de Carvalho

  How can Surveys of Professional Forecasters (SPF) be used to improve inflation forecasts? By using US historical quarterly data on SPF forecasts, we provide better understanding of how we can use forecast disagreement to improve our own forecasts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C5, C53, E, E3, E31, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting

• Repo transaction costs and balance sheet frictions

  Staff analytical paper 2026-10 Yanis Belkacem, Fabienne Schneider, Adrian Walton

  We develop an approach to quantify transaction costs in the repo market using OTC transaction data, where quoted bid-ask spreads are not observable. By estimating effective spreads at the level of individual trades, we construct a novel metric to evaluate intermediation costs across different segments of the market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12, G2, G20 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk