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January 19, 2026

Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2025

Firms’ sentiment remains subdued, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. After a weak year, domestic sales growth is expected to improve slightly. Export sales are expected to be modest. Most businesses plan to maintain or decrease current staffing levels, and they continue to prioritize investment spending on routine maintenance. Firms reported less pressure than last quarter from tariff-related cost increases. Most do not anticipate substantial increases in selling prices. Inflation expectations remain roughly stable between 2.5% and 3%.
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