News

Tariffs and related uncertainty continue to weigh on firms, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. While overall sales outlooks remain weak, outlooks for exports have recovered somewhat, with worst-case trade scenarios appearing less likely. Firms remain cautious in their hiring and investment plans. Some businesses reported cost pressures from tariffs, but competition and weak demand are constraining price pass-through to customers. In this context, firms’ short-term inflation expectations are lower than they were last quarter.

Overall, results of the second-quarter 2025 survey show that the CSCE indicator—a measure developed to summarize the opinions of Canadian consumers—declined again this quarter as spending intentions continued to weaken due to the persistent threats of tariffs and related uncertainty. Consumers still see the labour market as soft, and their fear of job loss is elevated. The trade conflict is leading consumers to become increasingly cautious about their spending plans and to change their spending behaviour. Consumers’ short-term inflation expectations have changed little since increasing markedly in the first quarter of 2025. This quarter, more consumers cited tariffs as the most important factor affecting the Bank of Canada’s ability to control inflation.

Business investment plays a pivotal role in economic growth.

Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the trade conflict with the United States has affected the Canadian economy. He explains that restoring open trade is critical for jobs and growth, and important for prices and inflation.

This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on June 4, 2025.