H68 - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

• Modelling the Sovereign Debt Strategy: A Practical Primer

  Staff Discussion Paper 2025-16 Nicolas Audet, Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao, Joe Ning

  We provide a primer on the role of debt modelling in informing the sovereign debt issuance strategy and discuss how specific challenges faced by debt managers can influence model design decisions. These insights are supported by our experiences using the Canadian Debt Strategy Model to guide policy decisions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11, G17, H, H6, H63, H68

• The Dynamic Canadian Debt Strategy Model

  Technical Report No. 127 Nicolas Audet, Joe Ning, Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao

  We present a dynamic debt strategy model framework designed to assist sovereign debt portfolio managers in choosing an optimal debt issuance strategy. The main innovation of this framework is the introduction of dynamic issuance strategies, which allow issuance decisions to vary over time based on the model’s simulated state variables.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, G, G1, G11, G17, H, H6, H63, H68