We identify two channels that affect the relationship between inflation and unemployment. First, inflation lowers wages because unemployed suffer more from inflation than employed, generating a positive relationship. Second, inflation increases firms’ financing costs, generating a negative relationship. Improvements in firm financing conditions can induce the relationship to switch signs.
Get quarterly data for the indicators we use to track the evolution of two vulnerabilities in the Canadian economy: the elevated level of household indebtedness and high house prices.
This paper studies how financial shocks shape the distribution of output growth by introducing a quantile-augmented vector autoregression (QAVAR), which integrates quantile regressions into a structural VAR framework. The QAVAR preserves standard shock identification while delivering flexible, nonparametric forecasts of conditional moments and tail risk measures for gross domestic product.
On Thursday, September 18, 2025, Ron Morrow, Executive Director of Payments, Supervision and Oversight the Bank of Canada, will deliver a keynote speech and participate in a Fireside Chat at The ONE Conference of the Chartered Professional Accountants Canada (CPA).
Ron Morrow, Executive Director of Payments, Supervision and Oversight, talks about innovations in the payments ecosystem. He also highlights the Bank’s new role as supervisor of payment service providers.
Executive Director of Payments, Supervision and Oversight Ron Morrow discusses advancements in how Canadians pay for things, and why Canada needs to do more to get ahead. He also explains the Bank of Canada’s new role as the regulator for payment service providers.