E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

• Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data

  Staff Working Paper 2015-24 Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon

  This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In particular, we extend two existing classes of combination schemes – Bayesian (static) model averaging and dynamic model averaging – so as to explicitly reflect the objective of forecasting a discrete outcome.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37

• Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies

  Staff Working Paper 2015-23 Juncal Cunado, Soojin Jo, Fernando Perez de Gracia

  This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of oil shocks in four of the largest oil-consuming Asian economies, using a structural vector autoregressive model. We identify three different types of oil shocks via sign restrictions: an oil supply shock, an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and an oil-specific demand shock.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, O, O5, O53, Q, Q4, Q43

• International Transmission of Credit Shocks in an Equilibrium Model with Production Heterogeneity

  Staff Working Paper 2015-19 Yuko Imura, Julia Thomas

  Many policy-makers and researchers view the recent financial and real economic crises across North America, Europe and beyond as a global phenomenon. Some have argued that this global recession has a common source: the U.S. financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, F, F4, F41, F44