E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T14:06:44+00:00Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/06/working-paper-2015-24/
This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In particular, we extend two existing classes of combination schemes – Bayesian (static) model averaging and dynamic model averaging – so as to explicitly reflect the objective of forecasting a discrete outcome.2015-06-26T16:30:16+00:00enModel Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data2015-06-26Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsWorking Paper 2015-24https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/wp2015-24.pdfModel Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional DataPierre GuérinDanilo Leiva-LeonJune 2015CC5C53EE3E32E37Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/06/working-paper-2015-23/
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of oil shocks in four of the largest oil-consuming Asian economies, using a structural vector autoregressive model. We identify three different types of oil shocks via sign restrictions: an oil supply shock, an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and an oil-specific demand shock.2015-06-26T16:17:49+00:00enRevisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies2015-06-26Econometric and statistical methodsInternational topicsWorking Paper 2015-23https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/wp2015-23.pdfRevisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian EconomiesJuncal CunadoSoojin JoFernando Perez de GraciaJune 2015EE3E32OO5O53QQ4Q43Productive Misallocation and International Transmission of Credit Shocks
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/06/working-paper-2015-19/
We develop an asymmetric, two-country equilibrium business cycle model to study the role of international trade in transmitting and propagating the real effects of global financial shocks. Our model predicts that a recession in a large economy considerably alters a recession in its smaller trade partner, with distinct investment dynamics driving the transmission.2015-06-12T13:27:56+00:00enProductive Misallocation and International Transmission of Credit Shocks2015-06-12Business fluctuations and cyclesEconomic modelsFinancial marketsFinancial stabilityInternational topicsWorking Paper 2015-19https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/wp2015-19.pdfInternational Transmission of Credit Shocks in an Equilibrium Model with Production HeterogeneityYuko ImuraJulia ThomasJune 2015EE2E22E3E32E4E44FF4F41F44