International topics

• May 13, 1998

  Canada-U.S. long-term interest differentials in the 1990s

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1998 Kevin Clinton

  Long-term Canada-U.S. interest spreads have changed remarkably during the 1990s. The unusually wide spreads of the first half of the decade have given way to an unprecedented run of negative yield differentials. In this article, the author examines the conceptual aspects of yields on international assets and their application to the Canada-U.S. situation. Prior to 1995, investors were unsure that, over the long run, inflation would meet the targets set by the government and the Bank. Policy credibility was undermined by large budget deficits and political uncertainty. In the second half of the decade, confidence was re-established as the fiscal positions of governments improved, long-run price stability became established, and political concerns about Quebec lessened. As long as these fundamentals hold, long-term rates should remain relatively low, even when short-term rates rise.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, International topics

• International Borrowing, Specialization and Unemployment in a Small, Open Economy

  Staff Working Paper 1998-2 Patrick Osakwe, Shouyong Shi

  Empirical evidence suggests that the unemployment rate and the export/GNP ratio are positively correlated with external debt across developing countries. This paper develops a dynamic model that provides an explanation for the aforementioned relationships. The central idea of our paper is that international borrowing affects unemployment and specialization patterns by unevenly changing the risk-sharing structure—across […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, J, J6