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TEXT
The Bank of Canada monitors a wide range of indicators in assessing the extent of pressures on capacity and inflation. The Bank's conventional estimate of the output gap provides an overall assessment of the degree of slack in the economy, but this estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty is addressed by considering a wide range of indicators in various markets. Many of these indicators are derived from data published by Statistics Canada, but some reflect information gathered by the Bank's regional representatives as well as by various outside sources. For further discussion of uncertainty as well as the information and analysis used to inform monetary policy decisions at the Bank of Canada, see Jenkins and Longworth1 (2002) and Macklem2 (2002).
1. Jenkins, Paul and David Longworth, "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty."Bank of Canada Review, Summer 2002: 3-10.
2. Macklem, Tiff, "Information and Analysis for Monetary Policy: Coming to a Decision." Bank of Canada Review, Summer 2002: 11-18.
(Sources)
Note: The following tables are updated two days after the Bank's most recent announcement date for the target overnight rate, based on information available up to that date. When there is a Monetary Policy Report, the tables are updated on the release date of the Report, again based on information available up to the last fixed announcement date.
Updated: 18 April 2012
Next update: 7 June 2012
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Inflation (year-over-year percentage change) Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2010Q2 | 2010Q3 | 2010Q4 | 2011Q1 | 2011Q2 | 2011Q3 | 2011Q4 | 2012Q1 | 2012Q2 | Latest data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core inflation | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 Feb | ||
| CPI excluding food, energy, and the effect of changes in indirect taxes | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 Feb | ||
| CPIW | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 Feb | ||
| Weighted median | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 Feb | ||
| MEANSTD | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 Feb | ||
| CPI Inflation | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 Feb | ||
| Chain price index for GDP | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 Q4 | ||
| Chain price index for consumption | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 Q4 | ||
| Chain price index for consumption excluding food and energy | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 Q4 |
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Product market Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2010Q2 | 2010Q3 | 2010Q4 | 2011Q1 | 2011Q2 | 2011Q3 | 2011Q4 | 2012Q1 | 2012Q2 | Latest data | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output gap (Bank of Canada's conventional measure)(1) | -1.3 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 Q1 | ||
| Capacity utilization rate | Non-farm goods (%) (1987-2001 avg. = 83.35) | 77.4 | 77.9 | 78.0 | 79.8 | 79.2 | 80.0 | 80.5 | 80.5 Q4 | ||
| Manufacturing (%) (1987-2001 avg. = 81.80) | 77.6 | 77.5 | 76.9 | 78.9 | 78.4 | 79.0 | 80.4 | 80.4 Q4 | |||
| Business Outlook Survey | Difficulty meeting an unanticipated increase in demand/sales (% firms) | 39.0 | 35.0 | 38.0 | 43.0 | 51.0 | 43.0 | 46.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 Q1 | |
| Unfilled orders/shipments - Manufacturing excluding aerospace products and parts | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.70 Feb | |||
| Aggregate stock-to-sales ratio | 0.639 | 0.641 | 0.619 | 0.610 | 0.617 | 0.608 | 0.593 | 0.593 Q4 | |||
| Foreign activity measure (2002 = 100) (1) | 102.0 | 102.2 | 103.6 | 104.0 | 105.6 | 107.7 | 109.1 | 109.1 Q4 | |||
1. As of the most recent Monetary Policy Report.
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Labour market Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2010Q2 | 2010Q3 | 2010Q4 | 2011Q1 | 2011Q2 | 2011Q3 | 2011Q4 | 2012Q1 | 2012Q2 | Latest data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate (%) | 8.0 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.2 Mar | |
| Participation rate (%) | 67.1 | 67.1 | 66.8 | 67.0 | 66.9 | 66.8 | 66.6 | 66.6 | 66.6 Mar | |
| Growth in employment (annualized rate, %) | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 Mar(2) | |
| Labour shortage (% firms) - All sectors (Business Outlook Survey) | 12.0 | 20.0 | 16.0 | 14.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 29.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 Q1 |
2. Percentage change at monthly rate.
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Wages and costs (year-over-year percentage change) Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2010Q2 | 2010Q3 | 2010Q4 | 2011Q1 | 2011Q2 | 2011Q3 | 2011Q4 | 2012Q1 | 2012Q2 | Latest data | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Force Survey - average hourly earnings (unweighted) | All employees | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.6 Mar | |
| Permanent employees | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 Mar | ||
| Wage settlements - Private sector | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 Feb | |||
| Compensation per hour - Business sector | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 Q4 | |||
| Unit labour costs - Total economy (labour income/GDP at market prices) | 0.6 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 Q4 | |||
| Unit labour costs - Business sector | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 Q4 | |||
| Bank of Canada commodity price index | Total | 22.90 | 17.60 | 9.90 | 11.80 | 20.20 | 12.60 | 2.10 | -7.90 | -11.40 Mar | |
| Energy | 27.00 | 19.90 | 5.20 | 5.50 | 20.40 | 10.20 | 2.40 | -10.00 | -15.40 Mar | ||
| Non-energy | 16.20 | 13.90 | 18.10 | 23.10 | 19.80 | 16.70 | 1.70 | -4.20 | -4.30 Mar | ||
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Real estate market (year-over-year percentage change) Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2010Q2 | 2010Q3 | 2010Q4 | 2011Q1 | 2011Q2 | 2011Q3 | 2011Q4 | 2012Q1 | 2012Q2 | Latest data | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New-housing price index | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 Feb | |||
| Resale-housing prices: www.royallepage.ca | 9.8 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 5.5 Q4 | |||
| Vacancy Rate | apartments (%) | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 Q4 | |||||||
| offices (%) | 9.0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 Q1 | ||
| industrial market (%) | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.2 Q4 | |||
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Expectations (year-over-year percentage change) Selected definitions, graphs and historical data |
2010Q2 | 2010Q3 | 2010Q4 | 2011Q1 | 2011Q2 | 2011Q3 | 2011Q4 | 2012Q1 | 2012Q2 | Latest data | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| www.conferenceboard.ca Percentage of firms expecting price increases over the next six months of: | 1% or less | 34 | 43 | 29 | 12 | 12 | 29 | 24 | 24 Q4 | ||
| 2% or less | 78 | 84 | 78 | 52 | 54 | 84 | 73 | 73 Q4 | |||
| 3% or less | 91 | 94 | 94 | 93 | 88 | 95 | 92 | 92 Q4 | |||
| More than 3% | 10 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 9 Q4 | |||
| www.consensuseconomics.com CPI inflation: Consensus Forecasts | 2010 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 Dec | ||||||
| 2011 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 Dec | |||
| 2012 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 Mar | |||||
| 2-3 years | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | ||||||
| 6-10 years | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | ||||||
| Business Outlook Survey - Percentage of firms expecting CPI inflation over the next two years to be: | Less than 1% | 2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 Q1 | |
| 1-2% | 50 | 53 | 47 | 21 | 18 | 41 | 41 | 28 | 28 Q1 | ||
| 2-3% | 45 | 32 | 44 | 58 | 62 | 47 | 51 | 63 | 63 Q1 | ||
| More than 3% | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 Q1 | ||
| Expectations implicit in real/nominal bond spread | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 Mar | ||