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Given the Institute's membership and its focus on financial stability, I feel safe in saying that all of us here today watched this summer's turbulence in credit markets with interest, to put it mildly. What began in the spring as a repricing of credit risk turned into dislocations that have yet to fully run their course.

There have been a number of significant economic and financial developments since the time of the July Monetary Policy Report Update.

Since the July Monetary Policy Report Update, and against a backdrop of robust global economic expansion and strong commodity prices, the Canadian economy has been stronger than projected. It is now operating further above its production potential than had been previously expected.

The Bank of Canada today released its October Monetary Policy Report, which discusses current economic and financial trends in the context of Canada's inflation-control strategy.

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 4 1/2 per cent.

Barker examines changes in the foreign exchange market, which is in a period of transition. Since the mid-1990s, three closely inter-related and mutually reinforcing factors–electronic trading platforms, a changing mix of market participants, and computer-driven algorithmic trading strategies–have been accelerating market growth and are creating a profound structural transformation. As the balance of market participation shifts between bank and non-bank accounts, large and small participants, and domestic and global players, the market is adopting some of the characteristics of an "exchange" model and is arguably becoming more liquid and operationally efficient.

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Siamese Gaming Tokens

The tokens pictured here are part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada.
Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa.

The dramatic growth in China's exports of consumer goods such as clothing, toys, and electronics, and imports of primary commodities such as oil and metals is having major effects on global supply and demand. In examining China's role in global relative price changes, Francis finds that downward pressure on the relative prices of consumer goods is likely to persist as China's large labour supply continues its migration into manufacturing. Likewise, China's size and growth will also remain key drivers of global commodities demand for some time. Despite these forces, inflation-targeting central banks have the tools to keep inflation close to target, thus offsetting any persistent upward or downward inflationary pressure.

Financing costs are important for both firms and the economy, affecting investment decisions and, ultimately, economic growth. Despite concern among policy-makers that the cost of equity financing may be higher in Canada than in the United States, empirical evidence supporting this view is mixed. Yet Canadian firms may not undertake as many projects that could potentially enhance growth if the cost of equity financing in Canada is relatively high. The article summarizes research by Jonathan Witmer and Lorie Zorn on the influences on the cost of equity in Canada and the United States, using an updated methodology that controls for firm characteristics and aggregate-level factors. In their sample, the cost of equity was 30–50 basis points higher in Canada over 1988 to 2006 but appears to have dropped in the post-1997 period. The results have policy implications related to such factors as firm size, disclosure, and securities regulation and enforcement.