November 3, 2025 Fireside chat with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada On Monday, November 3, 2025, Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, will participate in a fireside chat at The Logic Summit. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts Staff Working Paper 2025-28 Kevin Moran, Dalibor Stevanovic, Stéphane Surprenant We produce forecasts for four risk scenarios to consider their usefulness for monitoring the Canadian economy. We find a high-oil-price scenario benefits the economy, a US recession induces a slowdown, a tight labor market leads to price increases, and a restrictive monetary policy scenario increases the unemployment rate while lowering the inflation rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44
High-Frequency Cross-Sectional Identification of Military News Shocks Staff Working Paper 2025-27 Francesco Amodeo, Edoardo Briganti We identify and quantify fiscal news shocks, compiling events (2001–2023) that altered the expected path of U.S. defense expenditure. For each event, we estimate market-implied shifts in expected spending. A shift-share analysis yields a two-year, metropolitan statistical area–level GDP multiplier of approximately 1 for U.S. military build-ups. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E30, E32, E6, E60, E62, E65
October 30, 2025 Frequently asked questions about retail payments supervision Find answers to common questions about retail payments supervision.
October 29, 2025 Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼% Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases