On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates from a Medium Scale DSGE Model Staff Working Paper 2010-30 Sarah Zubairy This paper contributes to the debate on fiscal multipliers, in the context of a structural model. I estimate a micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, that features a rich fiscal policy block and a transmission mechanism for government spending shocks, using Bayesian techniques for US data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, E, E3, E32, E6, E62, H, H3, H30
Capital Requirement and Financial Frictions in Banking: Macroeconomic Implications Staff Working Paper 2010-26 Ali Dib The author develops a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with an active banking sector, a financial accelerator, and financial frictions in the interbank and bank capital markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G1
Banks, Credit Market Frictions, and Business Cycles Staff Working Paper 2010-24 Ali Dib The author proposes a micro-founded framework that incorporates an active banking sector into a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with a financial accelerator. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G1
Nowcasting the Global Economy Staff Discussion Paper 2010-12 James Rossiter Forecasts of global economic activity and inflation are important inputs when conducting monetary policy in small open economies such as Canada. As part of the Bank of Canada's broad agenda to augment its short-term forecasting tools, the author constructs simple mixed-frequency forecasting equations for quarterly global output, imports, and inflation using the monthly global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, F, F4, F47
Inventories in ToTEM Staff Discussion Paper 2010-9 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Yang Zhang ToTEM – the Bank of Canada’s principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy – is extended to include inventories. In the model, firms accumulate inventories of finished goods for their role in facilitating the demand for goods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32
Inventories, Stockouts, and ToTEM Staff Discussion Paper 2010-8 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Yang Zhang Inventory investment is an important component of the Canadian business cycle. Despite its small average size – less than 1 per cent of output – it exhibits volatile procyclical fluctuations, accounting for almost one-third of output variance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32
The Transmission of Shocks to the Chinese Economy in a Global Context: A Model-Based Approach Staff Working Paper 2010-17 Jeannine Bailliu, Patrick Blagrave To better understand the dynamics of the Chinese economy and its interaction with the global economy, the authors incorporate China into an existing model for the G-3 economies (i.e., the United States, the euro area, and Japan), paying particular attention to modelling the exchange rate and monetary policy in China. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52, F, F4, F41
The Fisher BCPI: The Bank of Canada’s New Commodity Price Index Staff Discussion Paper 2010-6 Ilan Kolet, Ryan Macdonald The prices of commodities produced in Canada have important implications for the performance of the Canadian economy and the conduct of monetary policy. The authors explain an important change to the methodology used to construct the Bank of Canada commodity price index (BCPI). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, E, E3
Le pouvoir de prévision des indices PMI Staff Discussion Paper 2010-3 Claudia Godbout, Jocelyn Jacob The forecast of world economic growth plays a key role in the conduct of Canadian monetary policy. In this context, the authors study the usefulness of the monthly Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) in predicting short-term real GDP growth in the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and China, as well as in the world economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, F, F4, F47
On the Advantages of Disaggregated Data: Insights from Forecasting the U.S. Economy in a Data-Rich Environment Staff Working Paper 2010-10 Nikita Perevalov, Philipp Maier The good forecasting performance of factor models has been well documented in the literature. While many studies focus on a very limited set of variables (typically GDP and inflation), this study evaluates forecasting performance at disaggregated levels to examine the source of the improved forecasting accuracy, relative to a simple autoregressive model. We use the latest revision of over 100 U.S. time series over the period 1974-2009 (monthly and quarterly data). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47