July 15, 2026 Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼% Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
July 15, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—July 2026 Canada’s economy has been weak but is showing signs of improvement. Growth is expected to pick up, and inflation is projected to ease to around 2%. Uncertainty remains elevated. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
July 15, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—July 2026—Canadian economy—Tariff and other assumptions Trade within North America remains mostly free of tariffs, but some industries have been heavily affected by sector-specific measures. Oil prices are assumed to decline.
July 15, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—July 2026—Canadian economy—Outlook Economic growth is expected to pick up over the projection horizon, rising above potential output growth. Inflation is elevated in the near term before returning to target as cost pressures fade and excess capacity is absorbed.
July 15, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—July 2026—Canadian economy—Current conditions Economic growth in Canada has been weak but is set to pick up. Headline inflation has risen above 3%. If oil prices and gasoline refinery margins decline as assumed, inflation should ease in the coming months. Inflation excluding gasoline remains near 2%.
July 15, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—July 2026—Overview After a year of weakness, Canada’s economy is showing signs of improvement. Growth is expected to pick up, and inflation eases gradually from its recent peak. Uncertainty is still high.
July 15, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—July 2026—Global economy The war in the Middle East has pushed up inflation around the world and is weighing on global economic activity. But oil prices have fallen from their peak, and inflation is expected to ease. Investment in AI is boosting global growth.
July 15, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—July 2026—Projections The outlook for Canadian growth is broadly unchanged. After a weaker-than-expected start to 2026, GDP growth is projected to be slightly stronger in 2027 and 2028. Although near-term inflation has been a bit higher than anticipated, the outlook for inflation is little changed.
July 15, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—July 2026—Risks The evolution of Canada’s trade relationship with the United States and the war in the Middle East remain the two most important risks to the outlook for inflation.
July 15, 2026 Monetary Policy Report—July 2026—In focus—War‑related supply disruptions are passing through to consumer prices The conflict in the Middle East has generated both direct and indirect cost pressures that continue to feed through supply chains. These cost pressures are material for the inflation outlook.